Big 10 vs. Big East - Michigan State vs. Louisville

Michigan State Spartans (29-6 SU, 19-13 ATS) vs. Louisville Cardinals (31-5 SU, 22-14 ATS)
NCAA Tournament - Midwest Regional Final (@ Indianapolis)
Sunday, March 29
2:20 PM ET

BetUS NCAA Basketball Sports Betting Odds:  LOUISVILLE -6.5, Total 138

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* MSU has won nine of its last ten games SU
* MSU has covered five of its last six games
* MSU has played three of its last four games OVER the total
* LOU has won its last 13 games SU
* LOU has covered five of its last seven games
* LOU has played nine of its last 14 games OVER the total

Louisville's 103-64 win over Arizona on Friday was about as dominating a performance as one is going to see in this year's tournament. The Cardinal defense flustered the Wildcats, forcing 14 turnovers and holding Arizona to 38% shooting. On offense, Louisville appeared unstoppable, hitting 58% of its shots, including 14 from beyond the three-point arc. Ball movement was sensational, the 29 assists registered can attest to that. It was 49-28 at the half and got worse from there. Rick Pitino's team had done just enough to win in its previous tourney game with Siena, but really flexed its muscles in what was one of its most complete efforts of the season.

It's a good time to be doing that, too, because they're three wins away from a national title. And it is advantageous that the starters, other than Earl Clark and Terrence Williams, got a little rest. This team has shot 55% in the NCAA's so far, and they have loaded up on the threes, with 56 in the last five games.

Michigan State has been pushed to the limit in its last two, defeating USC and Kansas by five points apiece in games that were not decided until the final minutes. They were down 60-57 against defending national champion Kansas, but Kalin Lucas came up with seven points in the last minute of play. The whole thing was a valiant effort, after trailing by 13 points in the first half, and facing a 36-29 halftime deficit.

Interestingly, the Spartans, who were +10 in rebounding margins this season, lost the battle of the boards to Kansas (31-27), and Cole Aldrich was a tough customer in the paint, with 17 points, 14 rebounds and four blocked shots.

For Michigan State, it was nice to see center Goran Suton play well offensively, as he scored 20 points and actually made five steals. But there was bad news too; Raymar Morgan has made one field goal in the last two games and broke his nose against Kansas, limiting him to just 13 minutes. He is forced to wear a mask in this one. Travis Walton had just one field goal. The defensive stalwart broke out for 18 points against USC, but had one field goal or less in ten of his previous 11 games. Delvon Roe, a freshman starter, has scored 19 points in his last five games. Lucas is a 40% shooter.

By the way, we don't have any doubt that Lucas, the Big Ten player of the year who's had a 2.5-to-1 assist-turnover ratio on the season (and even better in the tournament) can handle Louisville's pressure. However, what we're saying is that we're doubtful they can handle Louisville's perimeter defense in the half-court. Michigan State, which is just 41% over its last two, just isn't a good enough shooting team, doesn't have enough of a long-range attack (only five treys per game) and isn't explosive enough to trade points.

We're going to lay the points with Louisville, the 6.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA Tournament sports betting odds, and the team more likely to break this game open

JAY'S PLAY:  LOUISVILLE -6.5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)