posted March 20, 2009 at 16:10 EST in March Madness Free Picks
(5) Utah Utes vs. (12) Arizona Wildcats - Great West Bracket Opener
by Ian James

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No. 5 Utah Utes (-1.5) vs. No. 12 Arizona Wildcats (+1.5)
The Arizona Wildcats snuck in as one of the last teams selected to the group of 65 and come in as a 12 seed, go figure. They take on the fifth-seeded Utah Utes in the Midwest first-round and the winner will get a shot at either Wake Forest or Cleveland State on Sunday.
There was a big stink raised about the Wildcats even getting into this tournament over some teams who were snubbed with much better records. Arizona looked as though their run of 24 straight NCAA Tournament appearances was going to come to an end and with13 losses, including five in their last six games, it wouldn’t have been a snub by any means. What helped them get in was wins over Gonzaga, Kansas, San Diego State and a few more in Pac-10 play that helped their “strength of schedule” argument.
So enough about that, Arizona is in the Big Dance for the 28th time overall and face a hot Utah team that is fresh off a win over San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Championship finals last week. The Utes landed the five seed, highest since their 3 seed in 1998, after a very strong season, capped off with a division title. It was in ’98 when Utah went all the way to the national championship game before losing out to Kentucky.
Some Head to Head Stats
Utah leads the head-to-head series with Arizona, 28-20, which includes a very memorable 76-51 triumph in the Elite Eight of the 1998 NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats have gone just 7-11 overall when playing as the lower seed, but still many analysts are picking Arizona in this one.
• Utes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
• Utes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
• Utes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
• Over is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 neutral site games.
• Over is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
• Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
• Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog.
• Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
The majority of the Wildcats offence, that scored an average of 72.2 ppg, comes from the trio of Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger and Nic Wise. Hill, a 6-10 forward, has been their go to guy all season and he averages a double-double with team highs of 18.5 ppg and 11.0 rpg on the season. Budinger was right behind him in team scoring with 17.9 ppg and 6.3 rpg and can shoot, hitting 41.0 percent from beyond the arc. Wise has been the guy dishing out the ball and averaged 4.5 apg. He can also shoot the ball, netting 15.1 ppg behind 42.4 percent shooting from three-point distance.
Utah has relied on good shooting all season, hitting on 47.6 percent of their attempts from the floor, 37.6 percent from downtown and 78 percent at the foul line. Luke Nevill has been on fire all year, hitting 60.7 percent of his field-goal tries. That isn't all that surprising considering his 7-2, 265-pound frame means most of his baskets come from in the paint. This kid can play on both ends of the floor as he earned the Mountain West Conference Defensive and Player of the Year. Lawrence Borha is second in scoring at 12 ppg and he shoots 41 percent from long distance and 85 percent at the foul line. Shaun Green and Tyler Kepkay give Utah some options off the bench and they each chip in 10 ppg.
As many madness lovers know, the discrepancy in seeding means absolutely nothing in this game. If you really want proof of this, the line is nearly a pick’em contest and that is exactly what we’re going to do.
Utah is a tough club and its sound shooting, especially at the foul line, should make the difference tonight. The OU of 134 is also a solid bet to make as I see each team scoring 70 points.
Take the Utes (-1.5) and parlay that with the OVER.



