posted April 2, 2008 at 02:32 EST in March Madness Betting Trends

NCAA Final Four @ Alamodome, San Antonio, TX

(1) UCLA vs. (1) Memphis: The Tigers were masterful in both of their games last week as they mopped the floor with Michigan State, 92-74, and followed that massive beatdown up with an 85-67 whitewashing of Texas in their own backyard. Memphis covered both spreads with ease and both games soared over the closing ‘total’. UCLA put forth a non-covering lackadaisical effort against Western Kentucky to move onto the Elite 8 where they blew up Xavier by a 76-57 final count. Both of their games went over the closing ‘total’ as well.

These clubs last squared off in the Elite 8 of the 2006 NCAA Tournament. The 50-45 Bruins victory got UCLA back to the Final 4 for the first time since their 1995 Championship run in Indianapolis. They also met the previous year in non-conference play that saw the Tigers pick up an 88-80 in the pre-season NIT. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS their L/6 as an NCAA Tournament favorite of 1-6.5 points, but 2-5 ATS their L/7 against the PAC 10. The Bruins are 8-2 ATS as an underdog between 1-6.5 points, but they’re a poor 1-4 ATS against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600 their last five attempts.

Without further ado, this is how tonight’s Final 4 match-up played out according to the XBOX 360 while running a NCAA 2K8 game sim.

Each club looked to do what it does best to start the game as the Bruins pounded the rock inside to super frosh Kevin Love, while the Tigers bombed away from beyond the arc and let both Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose streak to the hoop. The Bruins held a 9-8 lead at the first media break. The Tigers press finally started to force some turnovers ultimately allowing Memphis to rip off a 9-2 run to take an 18-11 lead at the 10-minute mark. This is when the Bruins Josh Shipp started what will turn out to be the game of his life. UCLA’s next possession was ugly, but Shipp bailed it out when he drained a 25 footer from the top of the key the shot clock buzzer sounded. Memphis looked to answer by getting it down low to Dozier who calmly lined up for the 7-footer and drained it. The clubs continued to go back and forth exchanging points, but the Tigers put an end to that by getting downright nasty defensively and not allowing the Bruins anything from the field for a two-minute stretch. Antonio Anderson was left all alone on back-to-back possessions, and made the Bruins pay for it dearly by hitting a pair from beyond the arc. The first half closed out miserably for UCLA and the Tigers went on to take a 41-28 lead at the break.

The Tigers looked to slow things down considerably to start the second half, but the Bruins were having none of it. They saw what the Tigers wanted to do with Texas last week after holding a big halftime lead, so they decided to force the issue. Surprisingly, the Tigers were taken aback by UCLA’s pace and got taken out of their game throughout the first five minutes of the second half. What was a 13-point lead had been trimmed all the way down to one, 54-53, at the 12-minute mark.

The Tigers were able to increase that lead to six points after Anderson hit another three and Derrick Rose streaked to the hoop for two, but the Bruins finally locked down defensively to allow the Bruins to recapture the lead. Josh Shipp continued to play at an excelled level scoring the Bruins next 8-points on kick-outs after Memphis clamped down on Love in the paint and forcing Collison to dish off in mid-air. Each club went back and forth exchanging points over the next four minutes and UCLA held a 62-59 lead with less than four minutes to go in the game. With the right to compete in the National Championship on the line, both clubs superstars stepped to the forefront. The Tigers Roberts and Rose streaked to the hoop on each of their four possessions, but they entered the strength of the Bruins defense by doing so and were turned away.

Darren Collison found Josh Shipp wide open for a pair of jump shots that rang true, and the Bruins grabbed a five-point lead with less than 30 seconds to go in the game. The Tigers called timeout, and John Calipari immediately diagramed a play to get the Tigers right back init. The play was a success as the ball was fed to Joey Dorsey down low, but he immediately kicked it out to a wide-open Roberts who drained the 25 footer from the left wing. The Bruins now held a two-point lead with 20 seconds to go.

The Tigers immediately fouled Russell Westbrook once he got the ball hoping he’d at the very least split a pair. He did, and Dorsey grabbed the board with 16 seconds to go in the game. Derrick Rose calmly dribbled the ball up-court after the timeout and immediately cut towards the hoop. While in mid air, he turned around and threw the ball out to Antonio Anderson who had hit all three of his 3-pointers taken in the game, but this one wasn’t true and Kevin Love lofted the ball into the stands once he grabbed the board allowing the game clock to expire.

Final Score: UCLA 86 Memphis 83

BetUS Odds: Memphis (-2) 134.5

The Tigers poor shooting from beyond the arc and 53% shooting from the charity stripe ultimately led to their demise. It also didn’t help that they got no help from their bench.

XBOX recommends a play on UCLA (+2) and Over 134.5

UCLA Points Rebounds Assists FG% 3-Point %

Josh Shipp 30 2 1 11/18 61% 3/8 38%

Kevin Love 16 13 2 6/17 35% 0/2 0%

Russell Westbrook 10 1 3 4/7 57% 1/3 33%

Darren Collison 9 2 11 4/9 44% 1/4 25%

Mbah a Moute 7 12 4 3/8 38% 0-0 0%

Memphis Points Rebounds Assists FG% 3-Point %

Antonio Anderson 25 0 1 9/13 69% 3/4 75%

Chris Douglas-Roberts 16 5 8 7/16 44% 2/6 33%

Robert Dozier 14 10 2 6/10 60% 0/0 0%

Derrick Rose 13 3 10 5/12 42% 0/4 0%

Joey Dorsey 10 14 2 5/6 83% 0/0 0%

UCLA Teams Memphis

33/65 Field Goals 34/60

51% Field Goal Percentage 57%

7/19 3-Pointers 5/15

37% 3-Point Percentage 33%

13/15 87% Free Throws 10/19 53%

20 Assists 24

10 Turnovers 9

13 Team Fouls 9

35 Total Rebounds 26

10 Offensive Rebounds 4

8 Steals 9

3 Blocks 5

44 Points In The Paint 54

14 Bench Points 5

12 Second Chance Points 6

6 Fast Break Points 16

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