posted March 4, 2009 at 13:25 EST in March Madness Articles
Teams to Watch Come Tournament Time
by Charles Jay
When you look at "teams to watch" in something like the NCAA basketball betting tournament, there are obviously teams you are going to have a close eye on, whether you like it or not - schools like North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Oklahoma, Louisville, Duke are the obvious choices. What we're going to discuss here, however, are teams that are not expected to do very much but might just pull an upset or two, and if they get very lucky, might even have a chance to be the "shocker" to make it to the Final Four. As the field is announced, we're hoping to have several teams in the "mid-major" category that might have a chance to do something unexpected.
By definition, if you are scoping out longshots you are talking about some teams who might not even make it to the NCAA tournament, so don't be surprised if a couple of them are not chosen by the NCAA Selection Committee. However, if they DO get into the field, they are perfectly capable of doing some damage.
The complete list of odds at BetUS to win the NCAA's is probably to long to post here, but let's go over our teams, with their corresponding numbers, in alphabetical order:
ARIZONA (+10000 at BetUS) -- I have gotten on their case for not being able to win on the road, but in a tournament where everything is neutral, perhaps that weakness is mitigated to an extent. The Wildcats have talent at the point in Nic Wise, on the wing with Chase Budinger (17.8 ppg) and the pivot with Jordan Hill, a burly athletic scorer/rebounder (18 ppg, 11.1 rpg) who has gone from being a useful frontliner to being a potential NBA lottery pick. This is not Lute Olson's team anymore; there is no possible comeback for the former coach. We saw what this team was capable of doing when it ran off seven straight victories from late January to mid-February, including triumphs over Washington, USC and UCLA, but since then it has been three straight defeats. So they're hot and cold, but teams who get hot at the right time are those who take the NCAA tournament by storm.
CALIFORNIA (+15000 at BetUS) -- Mike Montgomery, the former coach at Stanford, has made a difference in this squad that was a classic under-achiever last season, finishing with a 17-16 record. Montgomery had a run in Palo Alto where he made it at least to the second round of the NCAA tournament for ten straight years. There isn't a lot of size on this team, although there are some decent credentials, with wins over Utah, UNLV, Arizona, Arizona State, Washington, Stanford and USC. Most importantly, however, what makes this team special is that if the Bears go through a hot stretch, they are capable of beating ANYBODY on any given night. They have the best three-point accuracy in the country, and three key players who are hitting more than 40% from beyond the arc: Jerome Randle (45%), Patrick Christopher (40.6%) and Theo Robertson (54%). Teams had better think twice about playing a zone against them.
FLORIDA STATE (+20000 at BetUS) -- The Seminoles are something of an opposite of the California team we just profiled, in that in registering wins over the likes of Florida, Miami, California, Cincinnati, Maryland and Clemson, they've relied on glove-like defense (39% FG's allowed) rather than offensive explosiveness. The only double-digit scorer is Toney Douglas (20.3 ppg) but there are four others who are tallying between 7.9 and nine points per contest. FSU has size, with an effective pair of forwards and a freshman center (Solomon Alabi) who is turning into something of an intimidator, with two blocks and 5.6 rebounds in just 21 minutes game. Florida State is 15-7-1 ATS this season, so they are used to performing above expectations, and they have taken on the personality of their coach, Leonard Hamilton, which is that they exhibit mental toughness. Because they take their defense wherever they go, they are going to be a tough "out" in the tournament.
MICHIGAN (+15000 at BetUS) -- The Wolverines have gone though incredible peaks and valleys this season, and they are not a team that is going to overwhelm anyone with size, but when they can execute their up-tempo offense unencumbered, they are trouble for just about anyone. Look, this is team that was good enough and gutsy enough to go into Pauley Pavilion and beat UCLA; they were routed by Duke, then came back and scored a win in the rematch. They went up to Connecticut and gave the Huskies life and death until the very end. There have been solid conference wins against Illinois, Minnesota and just recently Purdue, all of whom have seen time in the Top 25 this year. Yes, Michigan can pull some upsets in the tourney. The hardest part for them will be getting into the field in the first place. The NCAA committee will pick either five of six teams out of the Big Ten, so it's possible that the Wolverines' performance in the conference tourney will be a big factor.
NOTRE DAME (+12500 at BetUS) – There’s a big “if” attached to this one; that is, IF they make it to the Big Dance. What makes Notre Dame kind of an interesting proposition is that you can look at the starting lineup and the talent in it and you just know these guys can play; the only question is whether they are going to jell when the bell rings. The Irish have an experienced backcourt, which is highly critical going into tournament play. They have a luxury a lot of teams don't, which is true inside-outside firepower on offense. When you have Luke Harangody (24.2 ppg, 12.5 rpg), last season's Big East player of the year, working the paint and Kyle McAlarney (16.3 ppg, 44% three-pointers) throwing up bombs from the outside, with an able supporting cast, you've got a team that is going to force opposing defenses to cover every inch of the half-court. Notre Dame may have gotten its worst stuff out of its system, and may be ready to start playing some good basketball. Unlike some Big East teams, they’ll have some work to do in the conference tournament to get into the field, and that may take something out of them as it did with Pitt last year. That having been said, this team has under-achieved in post-season play in the recent past, but maybe it's their time to pull off a surprise.
PURDUE (+4000 at BetUS) -- The Boilermakers were ranked highly at the start of the season, and were probably expected to ultimately go farther at that point then they are now. They've slid in the rankings, where they are #19 in the AP and #20 in the coaches' poll. Regardless of how they do in the Big Ten tournament, Purdue will be in the NCAA field. Last year they came out of nowhere to be a major player in the Big Ten, and had a lot of young kids who played with wisdom far beyond their years. They have balance, and the versatile Robbie Hummel is getting healthier. Plus, this team has the one guy they can count on as a defensive stopper - guard Chris Kramer, the unquestioned blood-and-guts leader of this team who can play lockdown against some of the best (just ask Stephen Curry, who shot 5 for 26 against him).
Then there are two teams who are not listed on the board yet at BetUS:
PROVIDENCE -- The Friars came into this season with high hopes, because after all, they were returning a whole bunch of experienced players and had just brought aboard a new coach, Keno Davis, who had created last year's Cinderella story at Drake. The question with Providence in the loaded Big East was whether it was going to fit in with all those upper echelon teams who were almost assured of a tournament berth, and whether they could demonstrate that they belonged with the likes of Pittsburgh, Louisville and U-Conn or with teams like South Florida and Seton Hall. For evidence, they needed to offer some marquee wins, and they finally have. Providence first scored a win over Syracuse and just recently beat the reigning #1 team, the Pitt Panthers. As teams like Georgetown and Notre Dame have slipped a little, that opens things up for the Friars, and when you go into the post-season with a roster heavily populated with juniors and seniors, and bring a lot of depth to the table, you are going to be dangerous.
SAINT MARY'S -- As you may know, the Gaels lost their star player, Patrick Mills, to a wrist injury. In the long run, that may have been a blessing for this club, which has other component parts who have stepped up to take added responsibility by necessity. This was an important "growing-up" scenario for this club, and with the experience people like Carlin Hughes and Mickey McConnell are getting, that is going to make the bench all that much better when Mills, an Australian native who is one of the more fantastic talents in the country, comes back to the team. That should be in time of the conference tournament, and if not then, certainly for the first round of NCAA competition. Saint Mary's looked like a team left for dead immediately after Mills went down, but has since rebounded to stick it to a couple of teams, namely the Utah State Aggies, which was a big victory. That has to be a huge confidence builder.
