Posted on 10/26/2007 9:38:18 PM

Breeders Cup Betting: Juveniles Won’t be Delinquent

By Charles Jay

The Breeders Cup Juvenile will be the second championship race of the afternoon (5th overall on the card) at Monmouth Park in New Jersey and will offer an intriguing spectacle for novice and veteran horse racing bettors alike. This race will be contested at a mile and a sixteenth and brings together two-year-old colts and geldings. It pays a total purse of $2 million, with 54% of that going to the winner. And that winner could indeed become the solid favorite to win next year's Kentucky Derby as a three-year-old.

BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE

October 27 - Monmouth Park (Race #5)

Distance: 1-1/16 miles

Purse: $2 million

In evaluating this race from a betting standpoint, let's start things with the favorite. We will use the official Breeders Cup morning line, which may be different from what you find at BetUS as the race approaches:

WAR PASS (5/2) -- This Mr. Prospector descendant posted the highest Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) of any horse in this field. That was a 103 in the Grade I Champagne Stakes at Belmont at October 6. In that battle, War Pass defeated Pyro and Z Humor to notch his third win without a defeat for trainer Nick Zito. In his last two races, War Pass has improved his BSF by 10 points, then nine. At that rate, he could go through the roof. And he has consistently posted bullet workouts. This is certainly a deserving favorite.

But I want to make more than $5 on my $2 bet. Can we beat him, or more to the point, who can we put with him to win on a perfecta or trifecta ticket?

Well, it won't be Majestic Warrior, who blew away the field in the Hopeful Stakes but flubbed badly in the Champagne. He could have been a possible contender, but was withdrawn by trainer Bill Mott with a front left hoof injury.

Here are a few possibilities:

PYRO (6/1) -- Of course, Pyro has to be listed as a prime contender here. He is a strong closer, and came from well back to finish second to War Pass in the Champagne, posting a BSF of 100. Maybe the extra sixteenth will help him. If he can stay near the pace, he can put on that final kick. Hall of Fame jockey Steve Cauthen likes Pyro to upset War Pass: "If things to get heated up front, he should be the one finishing with the strongest move."

WICKED STYLE (10/1) -- I don't know if this is saying much, but among the entrants Wicked Pass has the best speed figure at a mile and a sixteenth, posting an 86 at Keeneland in the Breeders Futurity, in which he led virtually all the way. Wicked Style is unbeaten and has more earnings than anyone in the field ($445,000) by virtue of his two stakes wins. But his speed is not overwhelming, and does not match that of some of the others who will be in this race.

Z HUMOR (12/1) -- Z Humor, like Majestic Warrior, is trained by Bill Mott. This horse had a relatively strong performance in the Champagne, finished three lengths back in third, and posting a 97 BSF. Prior to that, he showed little in a Grade 3 stakes on this Monmouth course, getting a difficult ride under Joe Bravo. Kent Desormeaux, who rode him to an easy win in his debut on August 8 and in the Champagne Stakes as well, will be in the saddle. Reports are that Z Humor had a poor recent work at Monmouth, however, so this may not be the course for him.

Maybe a longshot will surprise. And why not? In the last eight years, 40% of the winners of Breeders Cup races have gone off at 10/1 or higher. With that in mind, maybe it could be someone like...

GLOBALIZATION (20/1) -- Some horses get going a little later than others. Lawyer Ron, the favorite in the Breeders Cup Classic, broke his maiden in his sixth race. For Globalization, it was race #4, but it was a superb effort in that Maiden Special Weight event, racking up a Beyer Speed Figure of 97 in a mile at Belmont, handling the field relatively easily. In this race, only Pyro, War Pass and Z Humor have been that fast over a distance of at least a mile. he may be crowded, breaking from the eight-spot, but expect him to get to the front and then it will be a matter of whether he can keep pace with War Pass and whoever else is out there at the time.

No one is giving him a chance, but if the last outing was indicative of improvement, Globalization could prove to be a late bloomer who figures into the money.

Learn How to Handicap & Bet on the Breeders' Cup

Horse racing with BetUS Racebook Online Racebook. We've got up to date lines and odds on 85+ racetracks. Join BetUS today to get in on the action.

(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com never "spits the bit." He is a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)