posted October 29, 2009 at 13:49 EST in Horse Racing Free Picks
Horse Play of the Day from Aqueduct
It was a slop fest at Aqueduct for opening day on Wednesday, with heavy rains making the racing surface a quagmire and the turf course unusable.
The weather is forecast to improve today, and while I doubt we will be on the turf, the main track should be in much better shape this afternoon.
The price plays at the Big A are few and far between today, but our play of the day holds some promise as it appears we have a good shot of beating the favorite.
The Late Pick 3 play at Keeneland includes a 12/1 longshot in the opening leg, a 15/1 outsider as my top pick in the second leg, and a duo in the final leg of the sequence that are sitting at 7/2 and 8/1 on the morning line.
That should give us enough ammunition to pad our bankroll today with our $24 investment.
Today's Play of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 3 Alw $45,000N1X (1:24 ET)
#2 Powder Princess 4/1#6 Perfect Magic 7/2
#7 Yo Karakorum 6/1
#5 Liza Too 3/1
Analysis: #2 Powder Princess cuts back a furlong after pressing the early pace and wakening to finish fourth last out in a highly graded race. Two came out of the race to win next out including the winner Unrivaled Belle, who won the Real Prize Stakes on Oct. 23 at Belmont Park. The filly makes her third start of her current form cycle and look out if the track is still wet. She is by Gone West out of a Broad Brush mare and is bred to like the off going.
#6 Perfect Magic is making her first start since last November for the Levine barn that is 30% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. The filly made all three of her starts on the left coast on fake tracks, and was doing her prep work at Calder before landing here.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 2,5,6,7
TRI: 2,6 / 2,5,6,7 / 1,2,4,5,7
Today’s Pick 3 Play from Keeneland:
Starting in Race 7: $1: 3,9,12 / 1,2,5,10 / 2,5 = $24
KEE Race 7 Alw $52,000N1X (4:05 ET)
#12 Strong Commitment, #3 Moon Town, #9 Map of the World
#12 Strong Commitment will be trying the poly for the first time here after breaking his maiden in a game effort last out on turf at Belmont Park. The $420K purchase is by Maria's Mon out of a mare that has dropped three runners that have earned $166K+, topped by Mint Lane ($299K). The colt drilled a bullet best of 76 to work four furlongs on Oct. 24 here.
#3 Moon Town broke his maiden last out in his second career start and first off a four-month break. The colt earned the top last out speed fig in the effort. The barn is 23% winners (with a +ROI) with horses making their second start off a 61-180 day layoff. This colt still appears to have plenty of upside potential.
KEE Race 8 Alw $54,000N2X (4:35 ET)
#5 Mega, #10 Ocean Colors, #1 Stealin' Kisses, #2 Langs Lash
#5 Mega tracked the early pace form the inside, had to steady in traffic and faded to finish a well beaten 11th. Two back at the Mountain the filly was sixth in a stake, a race that produced three next out winners. This filly passed her first allowance condition at Del Park going 7 1/2 furlongs in gate to wire fashion. She just needs a better trip and she should be sitting just off the early pace in this spot. She can be in the mix with her best at a generous price.
#10 Ocean Colors returns off a two month break after dueling for the early lead and fading to finish sixth in the slop in the Ms Woodford. Her lone go on turf produced a win against ALw-1 company at Churchill Downs three back. How about that pedigree, by Grade 1 winner Orientate out of the Grade 1 winner Winning Colors ($1.5 million) who never tried turf but she has three other foals that have won on the lawn.
KEE Race 9 Clm $7,500 (5:05 ET)
#2 First Movement, #5 Spark of Humor
#2 First Movement went gate to wire to beat $7.5K foes last out at Arlington and now has a career record on the fake stuff of 21-10-9-1. The gelding was claimed out of his last start by the Miller barn that is showing a 1 for 9 mark first off the claim. This gelding has handled nine furlongs, landing in the exacta in all five trips. Speed was not holding very well on yesterday's card but overall at the meeting speed has had a fighting chance. This guy seldom runs a bad one and looks like a good fit here.
#5 Spark of Humor did not fire his best last out when ninth against $10K claimers here. Three back this guy beat $10K company over the poly at Arlington and has landed in the exacta in 9 of 17 starts on poly. He comes back here with a slight class drop and is better than he showed last out. Willing to give him another look here if we catch most of his 8/1 ML.
Price Plays From Aqueduct:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
R4: #6 Oedipus O’Neal 12/1
R5: #5 Royal Vessel 12/1
R7: #4 Budget 10/1
Good luck padding your bankroll today!
