Horse Pick of the Day - Sunshine Stakes from Churchill Downs

Churchill Downs will run the Grade III Cardinal Handicap this Saturday.  That’s the feature.  The race right before it, however, the Bet On Sunshine Stakes, will provide our Horse Pick of the Day.

Race-day:  11/21/2009

Race-time:  4:06 pm EST

The Bet On Sunshine Stakes won’t showcase the best sprinters in the United States, but it will showcase some talent as the purse of $60,000 is much more than a lot of allowance horses are used to.

Let’s take a look at Race 8 at Churchill Downs on Saturday.

Churchill Downs – Race 8

$60,000 Bet On Sunshine Stakes

For Three Year Olds and Upward

6 furlongs on dirt

Due Date - - 10/1 morning line odds

There is a lot of speed in this race.  Tons of speed.  So much so that Custom For Carlos, the likely 7 to 5 or worse chalk, will have no choice but to get caught up in a speed duel.  Custom For Carlos might be good enough but if he isn’t then Due Date, who is the only confirmed closer in this race, figures to win it.  Trainer Stephen Margolis is 32% with his turf to dirt runners and this guy does have two victories on dirt.  He figures as the play of this race with so much speed lined up to take on Custom For Carlos.

Grand Traverse - - 6/1 morning line odds

Grand Traverse usually likes to race on the lead, but in his last, his first with Calvin Borel aboard, he took his time before making his move.  Borel will most likely employ the same strategy in this race as he knows going after Celtic Innis, Custom For Carlos and Accredit is not the way to win a race.  Grand Traverse has two victories over Churchill Downs’ main track and the fact that Borel knows Churchill Downs better than anybody has to mean something, right?

Custom For Carlos - - 2/1 morning line odds

If horseplayers think they’re getting 2 to 1 on this guy, they are sorely mistaken.  Custom For Carlos will go off at 7 to 5 at the highest, possibly 4 to 5, because of his last race where he busted an amazing speed rating.  That’s all well and good, but this field is full of super fast early types that will go after him.  Custom For Carlos is a good horse, but he’s not worth a win bet at the expected odds because the pace isn’t in his favor.

Wagering Strategy

Due Date figures to go off at overlaid odds and deserves a bet to win and place.  I will play an exacta and trifecta box with Custom For Carlos, Grand Traverse and Due Date.