Horse Pick of the Day from Keenland Racetrack

Race-day: 10/31/2009

Race-time: 3:35 pm EST

Keeneland’s featured race on Saturday is the Grade II Fayette Stakes. In that race, Parading and Blame figure to take most of the action and if the past performances mean anything, one of them will probably win that race.

It makes more sense for horse betting players to look elsewhere for an overlay. A potentially profitable overlay runs in Race 6 at Keeneland on Saturday.

Let’s take a look at Race 6 at Keeneland on Saturday.

Keeneland – Race 6

$56,000 Allowance

For Three Year Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won a Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter or State Bred on the Turf

1 mile turf

Mutadda - - 4/1 morning line odds

Trainer Tom Amoss hasn’t been having as good of a Keeneland meet as most gamblers expect of him, but Mutadda could help to turn that around. The son of Muktaddim should relish the stretch out to 1 mile on the turf. Amoss is very good with shippers and this one comes in from Mountaineer. He’s also 26% dirt to turf and 25% second time off of a layoff. There’s a lot to like with this horse.

Mr. Mischief - - 8/1 morning line odds

This son of Stormy Atlantic is coming off of a very nice win at 1 1/16th miles on Arlington Park’s turf course. Mr. Mischief is 4-3-1 out of 13 lifetime races over the turf and has enough speed to stay close in this race. He could end up as a seriously tough overlay to look past if his odds drift past 8 to 1. He’s got a good shot in this at a more than fair price.

Dubious Miss - - 6/5 morning line odds

The 5 year old gelding just finished second to Furthest Land in his last, the Grade II Kentucky Cup Classic. That race was on Polytrack. This race is on the turf. Trainer Paul McGee is only 9% with all weather to turf movers. Dubious Miss is the obvious class of this race and should win this going away but the odds aren’t justified.

Wagering Strategy

I like Mutadda and will bet him to win and place. I will play an exacta and trifecta box with Mutadda, Mr. Mischief and Dubious Miss.