posted November 20, 2009 at 12:30 EST in Horse Racing Free Picks
Friday Horse Racing Picks from Aqueduct
The Aqueduct card for Friday holds some promise although I had a difficult time coming up with more than a handful of live longshots.
The play of the day is a $50,000 maiden claimer, and we are on the likely favorite Destiny Road, who is dropping in for a tag for the first time while making her first start for the high percentage barn of Bruce Levine.
The late Pick 3 might start chalky, as my top pick in the opening two legs could go off as the favorite. The final leg of the three race sequence is a wide open race and we go four deep looking for a decent price.
Today's Play of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 4 Md $50,000 (1:52 ET)
#6 Destiny Road 2/1
#1 Haberdasher / #1a Tiz Hidden 3/1
#5 Quantitativeeasing 7/2
#3 La Belle Vie 5/1
Analysis: #6 Destiny Road showed some early zip last out when stretched out to a mile and weakened to finish fifth over a wet track at Belmont Park. Four have come out of that race to run back, three next out winners and the other runner ran second. The winner of the race was Ailalea, who won the Tempted (G3) on Nov. 7. The filly goes form former Dale Romans assistant Liz Gray to the Levine barn that is 35% winners (with a +ROI) with newcomers to the barn. Just one published work since her last start but she does face easier here on the drop in for a $50K tag.
#1 Haberdasher set the early fractions before weakening to finish fourth last out for a $75K tag in her second career start. Interesting the barn's go to guy Garcia lands here while Ramon is off to ride the stablemate #1a Tiz Hidden, who dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish fourth in her debut. The winner of that race was Shezacrazygirl, who returned to win the Louisiana Jewel at Delta Downs on Nov. 6. The filly is out of the stakes placed Hidden Ransom ($182K) and the barn is solid second time out, hitting at a 25% clip.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 1,6 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,2,3,5,6
Today’s Pick 3 Play from Aqueduct:
Starting in Race 7: $1: 5,7 / 1,3,5 / 2,3,6,7 = $24
AQU Race 7 Monarchs Maze S. (3:16 ET)
#7 Grassy, #5 Golden Mexico
#7 Grassy gets the call if this race sticks to the grass, which is iffy at best. He came with a four wide run and finished evenly for fourth last out in the Jamaica (G1). The third place finisher in the race was Courageous Cat, who came back to finish second in the Breeders' Cup Mile, beaten just a half length by Goldikova. The colt drops into a better spot here in this overnight stake and looks like he will be tough to handle here. He has a nice pedigree, by El Prado out of a mare that has dropped seven other turf winners including a couple of stakes winners. Ramon is back on board, NY's top jock guiding this colt to his win two back.
#5 Gold Mexico is also sent out by Clement. The colt was caught in traffic in midstretch and finished up well when clear for third, beaten 1 1/4 lengths for the top spot. The colt has handled ground with some give to it, coming up just a head shy of winning the tap Admiral three back over yielding footing at the Spa.
AQU Race 8 Alw $43,000N1X (3:44 ET)
#1 Under the Rainbow / #1a Amiga Del Sol, #5 Rogue's Jewel, #3 Silver Shoes
#1 Under the Rainbow broke her maiden last out in her fourth career start in a racer taken off the turf. She pressed the early pace and took over in midstretch. Two have come out of the race to run back including third place finisher Great Gracie Dane, who graduated in her next outing on Nov. 12 here versus maiden special weight company. The cut back to seven panels looks like it will suit and this al is bred top and bottom to handle a wet track.
Her entrymate #1a Amiga Del Sol went gate to wire to break her maiden last out for a $50K tag. The effort was flattered when runner up Roaring Belle came back to break her maiden in her next start on Oct. 9 for a $35K tag. She also has an outstanding off track pedigree, by Friends Lake out of a Conquistador Cielo mare that has dropped five other winners. The filly completes a strong looking entry here, especially if the track comes up wet.
AQU Race 9 Md $50,000 (4:12 et)
#2 Calvello, #3 Freshman Dorm, #6 Don Balcazio, #7 Bwana Brave
#2 Calvello was under a firm hold through the first five furlongs, got through along the inside in the stretch to the lead and weakened late to finish fourth while beaten just 3/4 of a length for the top spot. Both of this guy's turf tries have been decent despite being a bit on the light side pedigree wise for the grass, This is not exactly a tough looking spot here and his 6/1 ML looks fair enough. He ran okay in the mud two back in a runner up finish, is bred to handle a wet track, and fits well here if this race comes off the turf.
#3 Freshman Dorm dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish sixth last out at the Big M in his first route try. He drops back in for a tag here, which looks like it should suit. He made a good late run in his debut for a $65K tag going six furlongs to finish third. The son of Orientate has a pair of sibs that are winners including full bro Old Timer (1 for 3, $15K) who broke his maiden on the weeds.
Price Plays From Aqueduct:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
R2: #3 Love of Life 12/1
R6: #5 U.S. Calvary 8/1
R7: #3 Duke of Homberg 20/1
R8: #3 Silver Shoes 8/1
Good luck padding your bankroll today!
