posted June 26, 2009 at 11:00 EST in Horse Racing Free Picks
Belmont Park Picks - Handicapping Winners
Padding Your Bankroll: Friday June 26
Friday is generally reserved for Happy Hour for many as the work week is ending, but with a 3:00 ET post time for the opener at Belmont Park and a 6:00 ET post time for Churchill Downs, I strongly recommend skipping a trip to the bar and head straight home to fire up the computer.
The Belmont Park cards holds some potential if the rainy weather holds off. The turf course was listed as yielding for Thursday and there is a 50% chance of thunderstorms on Friday.
I am thinking Mother Nature is going to give us a reprieve and there will not be enough rain to force the turf races onto the main track.
Our play of the day could be a profitable one. My top two picks are 20/1 and 10/1 on the morning line respectively. If we can get one of them home first, we may pad our bankroll handsomely today.
Today's Play of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 4 Md $25,000 (4:30 ET)
#5 We Get It 20/1
#9 Flying by the Pole 10/1
#12 He Struck It Rich 4/1
#7 Last Noble 5/1
Analysis: #5 We Get It gets a stab here at what likely will be a generous price. He came back off an eight-month layoff last out and caught slop, breaking poorly and ducking inward, then drifted out in the stretch while making up some ground late. Blinkers are added today for the Guillo barn that is having a strong meeting. The barn is hitting at a 28% clip and is 5 for 11 when adding blinkers. The gelding is by Officer out of an unraced Deputy Minister mare that has dropped two winners including More Fascination ($71K), a three-time winner on turf. Worth a look here at a big price.
#9 Flying by the Pole will also likely be a nice price. He caught a muddy surface and a 16-length winner last out in a race taken off the turf. Two back on the turf off a 2 1/2 month break he raced in mid pack, made a six wide run and flattened out in the stretch. The Penna barn is hitting at a 33% clip overall on the year and has been sending out live runners here, hitting with 6 of 17 starters. I don't think we have seen the best out of this gelding yet.
WIN: #5 to win at 12/1 or better.
EX: 5,9 / 5,7,9,12
TRI: 5,9 / 5,7,9,12 / 2,3,5,7,9,12
Today’s Pick 3 Play from Belmont Park:
Starting in Race 7: $1: 2,6,10 / 2,4,8,10 / 2,10 = $24
BEL Race 7 Clm $25,000N2L (6:04 et)
#2 Chinese Whisper, #10 Alabama Man, #6 Beneath the Crown
#2 Chinese Whisper came from far out of it last out to rally for second, beaten a length for the top spot. He got a solid pace to run at and really did not have much of an excuse as the beaten fav other than coming back quickly with just a week off. This guy was third in the G1 Gran Criterium back in '06 and finished in the money in a couple of G3's in '07. Ramon takes over and he seems like passing the non-winners of two level should be a snap, but he failed in his last two tries. Perhaps he needs more than a flat mile, but there are no viable options in this group and we'll have to back him here, likely at less than his 5/2 ML.
#10 Alabama Man makes his first start since last November where the gelding tracked the early pace and faded to finish sixth at this level in the mud. The gelding broke his maiden over the turf here three back against $45K maiden claimers and the ground had some give to it that day and likely will again here. The barn is 20% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff.
BEL Race 8 Perfect Sting S. (6:36 et)
#4 Shared Account, #10 Dynaslew, #2 Dame Ellen, #8 Fast Tigress
#4 Shared Account is an interesting longshot sent out by one of our favorite barns. The filly showed some promise by winning her first two career starts, then things went bad as she was outrun in a couple of G2's in Florida. She was given two months off and returned with a sharp win last out versus Alw-2 foes at Del Park. That has turned out to be a key race as three she beat that day have turned around and won their next starts. Now she tries turf for the first time for a barn that is 17% winners with horse trying the weeds for the first time. She is by Pleasantly Perfect (18% first turf from a limited sampling) out of a Smart Strike mare that has dropped two other winners including one turf winner. Rose is in to ride and we should catch a decent price.
#10 Dynaslew draws a tough post and is facing winners for the first time here. She was a smart looking maiden winner last out in her third career start and first off a two-month break. Two back she ran a game second behind Ailbe, who returned to finish fourth and then beat Alw-1 company in her next two starts. That 4/2 race produced a total of four next out winners including our second pick. She has a real nice pedigree, by Dynaformer out of the stakes winner Slews Final Answer ($358K).
BEL Race 9 Alw $43,000N1X (7:08 et)
#10 Munition, #2 Woodrunner
#10 Munition makes his first start since a fifth place finish at Gulfstream Park back in February versus $16K starter allowance company. The winner of that race was Steppedoutofplace, who returned to beat $10K starter allowance company in his next start. The runner up Indian Arm also won next out, taking a $30K non-winners of three. The gelding won over the turf here last fall versus $35K non-winners of two for his second career win on turf. The barn is 18% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. He looks like he fits here as he faces NY breds for the first time since '07 and we should catch a decent enough price.
#2 Woodrunner makes his third start of his current form cycle after a third place finish last out at this level. The winner of the race was Kutais, who came back to beat NY bred Alw-2 optional claimers in his next outing on 6/11. The gelding is a half bro to a couple of stakes winners, top earner Run WIth the Lark ($260K). Picks up Ramon and looks like a legit contender in here although he really had no excuse not to win at this level last out.
Price Plays From Belmont Park:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
R4: #5 We Get It 20/1
R4: #9 Flying by the Pole 10/1
R5: #6 Devilshameye 15/1
R6: #1 Liberty Lace 10/1
R7: #7 Hot Pace 8/1
R8: #4 Shared Account 12/1
R9: #10 Munition 12/1
Good luck padding your bankroll today!
