posted October 20, 2008 at 11:59 EST in Horse Racing Articles
Breeders’ Cup Betting - The Breeders’ Cup Classic, an Intro
Will he or won’t he? I am referring to the magical Curlin who recently became North America’s first ten million dollar horse. Most of those earnings came from Curlin’s victory in the Dubai World Cup this past March and last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Will he win or won’t he win. That’s the biggest question going into Saturday’s card. There will be quite a few exotic tickets with Curlin as a single. It makes sense, then, for online racebook fans to look for a horse to beat the unbeatable Curlin.
What horse and what are the real chances? That’s the question. I’ve listed a few below. Believe it or not, I think that Curlin is vulnerable in this race. Why? Well, because this is the Breeders’ Cup Classic and long shots tend to do very well when push comes to shove. Remember Cat Thief, Volponi, Alphabet Soup, Arcangues, Tiznow (twice!), Awesome Again and Pleasantly Perfect?
Curlin can be beat. Trying to beat him is the only way for online racebook fans to make money in this race. Of course, if he does win this race then it would definitely be well deserved. The horse is amazing.
Let’s get to it!
Race-day: 10/25/2008
Santa Anita - - Race 8
Breeders’ Cup Classic
$5,000,000
For Three Year Olds and Up
1 ¼ miles on Pro-Ride
Henrythenavigator - - 4/1 fair online odds
I’ve been dying to see what this Aidan O’Brien charge would do if given the chance to first try a surface similar to dirt and second stretch out from the mile distance that he has been running at. He lost his last race but that appears to have been a prep since Aidan had no qualms about throwing him into this versus the brilliant Curlin. Henry has been almost as good as Curlin, actually, running off five Grade I victories in a row earlier this year.
That’s a full hand. He has the class to be an absolute terror in this and if O’Brien is right about his ability to take the Pro-Ride surface, Curlin could be looking at the closest thing to himself that any of us have seen in a while. Make no mistake, beating Curlin is going to be a seriously daunting task, but I believe that Aidan O’Brien has the horse to do it in Henrythenavigator.
Notice that Aidan didn’t even pre-enter this guy in the Breeders’ Cup Mile where he no doubt would have gone off at odds of 3 to 5. Instead, O’Brien is going for the big prize. He might very well get it with this tough, talented, impressive three year old.
Curlin - - 2/1 fair online odds
At 2 to 1 or higher Curlin is every bit the horse to bet on in the Classic as Zenyatta is in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic. Curlin might be a better online bet because Zenyatta faces some good American horses while Curlin pretty much faces a bunch of losers from the states and some brilliant European turf stars. If Henrythenavigator doesn’t take to the Pro-Ride surface, then Curlin should have this race all to himself. Named after a former slave, Curlin is without doubt on the level of Tiznow. Should he win this, coupled with his victory in the Dubai World Cup in March, he will be on the level of Cigar and Citation. Yes, he is that good.
What online racebook fans have to appreciate about Curlin is his connections’ willingness to run against the very best in the world. He took on the best dirt horses in the world in the Dubai World Cup. He experimented on turf to see if he would like it because his connections wanted to run in the Prix d’Le Arc Triomphe and now he’s taking on Henrythenavigator and Duke of Marmalade, two of the best horses in the world.
He’s also doing it while running over a surface that he has never run on before. That’s gutsy. I won’t be making a win wager on Curlin unless he goes off at 2 to 1 or higher, online betting fans need to stick to their rules, but I won’t cry in my soup if Curlin wins this. In fact, should he do it, I won’t be able to keep myself from clapping.
Well Armed/Fairbanks - - 15/1 fair online odds
Whichever speed horse makes this race will have the front all to himself. If neither speed horse makes this race, then Henrythenavigator and Curlin might be running up front. There is absolutely no speed signed on for this thing. I prefer Well Armed in this spot, which is one of the reasons I really hope his connections rethink their decision to run him in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, but I’ll take Fairbanks at online odds of 15 to 1 or higher. No matter what happens this is still a horse race. Lone speed is lone speed.
Casino Drive - - 20/1 fair online odds
For a horse going into this after only two lifetime races, there sure is a buzz about this guy, right? It sort of reminds of the buzz surrounding a horse named Jumron in 1995 when Thunder Gulch won the Kentucky Derby. Yeah, nobody ever heard about that guy after the Derby either. The thing about Casino Drive is that the talent is obviously there but he’s going from playing Mary Had a Little Lamb on the piano to playing Robert Johnson’s Crossroad Blues on a acoustic guitar with a bottleneck slide.
I mean, does anybody really believe that a horse with two lifetime starts could beat Henrythenavigator and Curlin? Seriously, people. Let’s get it together, okay? On the outside chance that he is the greatest thing since sliced bread, I have made my cut-off for an online bet on Casino Drive at 20 to 1. Since he will probably be second choice in the wagering, I will have to pass on making an online bet. I love the Japanese for giving it a shot, but I just don’t see it happening.
