posted November 5, 2009 at 17:21 EST in Horse Racing Articles
2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic Profiles - Rip Van Winkle
Aidan O’Brien is no stranger to big races. Backed by the powerful Coolmore Stud operation out of the Republic of Ireland, O’Brien has won his share of big races. Coolmore Stud is the largest breeding operation of thoroughbred racehorses in the world. Through Coolmore, O’Brien obtains his horses and through Ballydoyle Stables, he runs his horses.
Therefore, to see O’Brien back in the United States with plenty of horses to make a run in the Breeders’ Cup is nothing new. This year, though, could be different because this year the man who saddled Henrythenavigator to a second place finish in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic has, by his own admission, the best horse he has ever trained running in the 2009 Classic, Rip Van Winkle.
American racing fans must be forgiven if they only believe that Rip Van Winkle is a story by Washington Irving and not also a racehorse. After all, O’Brien’s charge was thumped by arguably one of the greatest racehorses of all time, Sea The Stars, thoroughly in 2009.
Sea The Stars finished ahead of Rip Van Winkle in the Grade I Two Thousand Guineas, the Grade I Epsom Derby, and the Grade I Coral Eclipse, but Sea The Stars, by all accounts, won’t enter the gate in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic. What that means is that O’Brien’s horse could possibly be the favorite to win the Classic. Right now, Rip Van Winkle is a +200 co-favorite along with the super filly Zenyatta in the online racebook to take home the Classic trophy.
Favoritism makes sense as Rip Van Winkle has won his last two races, both grade ones, in sterling fashion. He took down the Grade I Sussex by 2 ½ lengths over the well-regarded Paco Boy and then he won the Grade I Queen Elizabeth Stakes over Zacinto and fellow Breeders’ Cup contender, Delegator. In both races Rip Van Winkle looked absolutely terrific, but there are flaws with those who believe that Rip Van Winkle is worth the low odds to win the Classic.
Aidan O’Brien is a master trainer, that won’t be an issue. Rip Van Winkle no doubt will be on his toes, ready to enter the gate, ready to run, able to get in perfect position and seemingly ready to take homer the winner’s purse of the mullah on Nov. 7 th. Bettors who put money O’Brien’s charge, however, should wait out the end of the race before walking to the window to cash their tickets.
The reason is simple; Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass were running against a much softer group of horses in the 2008 BC Classic. Curlin, the top American runner, hadn’t done a whole lot going into the race. It was also obvious that Curlin didn’t care for the Pro-Ride surface. Therefore, the top American, and the favorite in the race was racing over a surface he detested, on the downturn of his career. No wonder he finished 4 th.
Curlin, unfortunately for American racing fans, was the only horse capable of challenging Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator on class in the 2008 BC Classic. Tiago, Go Between, Colonel John, Smooth Air, Fairbanks, Student Council and Casino Drive were either horses that had proven to be no better than Grade III or Grade II status or hadn’t really proven themselves at either the 1 ¼ mile distance or against top notch competition.
That’s not the case with this year’s field. Rip Van Winkle may be a great horse, nobody is going to doubt that, but Zenyatta, who figures to run in the Classic, is a great horse as well. Summer Bird, the Belmont Stakes, Travers and Jockey Gold Cup winner is coming into the race as well as any horse could.
Then, there’s the turf star Gio Ponti who will bypass the Breeders’ Cup Turf for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Gio Ponti isn’t nearly as well regarded as Rip Van Winkle, but he does have success over the Pro-Ride surface and has been as good of a racehorse in the United States as any outside of Rachel Alexandra in 2009.
Finally, there’s the other European, Twice Over, who is out of Observatory and whose grandfather is Distant View. Twice Over is himself a Grade I winner over the turf and comes out of the Juddmonte Farms racing outfit which, like Ballydoyle, has won numerous Grade I races throughout the world.
This is a very, very good field for the BC Classic. It’s better than many horseplayers might think. Taking such short odds on a horse that hasn’t even won a million bucks yet to beat the likes of Zenyatta, Summer Bird, Gio Ponti and Twice Over makes absolutely no sense.
Pass on betting Rip Van Winkle in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The odds won’t justify a wager.
