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posted November 20, 2009 at 12:40 EST in Boxing Free Picks

WBA Super Middleweight Title Fight - Mikkel Kessler vs. Andre Ward

Bookmark and Share by Charles Jay

November 21 - Oakland
MIKKEL KESSLER -220
ANDRE WARD +175

Over 9.5 Rounds -240
Under 9.5 Rounds +190

For betting purposes, let's look at the contestants:


KESSLER (42-1, 32 KO's) is the -220 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds and, in the opinion of many, the best fighter in the world at 168 pounds, after Joe Calzaghe moved up in weight and then retired. Kessler won 44 of his 47 amateur fights, and won several championships, although nothing at international or Olympic levels. He turned pro in 1998, at age 19, with a first-round KO of Kelly Mays. It wasn't long before Kessler was facing off against some experienced opponent-types, although all of them were in the safety of his own backyard in Denmark. The quality of opposition did not pick up a heck of a lot until he fought in his first scheduled 12-round bout, defeating former WBC champ Dingaan Thobela, who was in the midst of a seven-fight losing streak.

Kessler then started a strong of relatively impressive stoppages, beating Henry Porras, Julio Cesar Green, Andre Thysse and Manny Siaca, before meeting up with former rugby star Anthony Mundine with the WBA 168-pound title at stake. In a switch, Kessler had to go to the other guy's hometown for the fight, beating Mundine in Australia by unanimous decision for the title. After that it was KO wins over former champions Eric Lucas and Markus Beyer, then a shutout performance against gutsy Librado Andrade that introduced him to American TV audiences and set up a fight with Joe Calzaghe for the undisputed crown.

In a spirited battle, Calzaghe beat Mikkel Kessler by four points on two of the judges' cards and six points on the other. Then Calzaghe decided to move up in weight and Kessler stepped in to win the vacant WBA title over an undefeated but outclassed Dimitri Sartison in June of 2008. Danilo Haussler offered only token resistance in Kessler's first title defense, while Gusmyr Perdomo went down in four his last time in the ring, on September 12.

WARD (20-0, 13 KO's), the +175 underdog in the boxing odds, prepares for a huge step forward in caliber of opposition as he faces Mikkel Kessler. Ward was a tremendous amateur boxer, and well-decorated too, winning national titles at 165 and 178 pounds, then capturing the light heavyweight gold medal for the United States in the 2004 Olympics in Athens.

The Oakland native turned professional in December of 2004 with a stoppage of Chris Molina. At the beginning Ward was pretty well protected, and truth be told, he fought a lot of people with good records but no real credentials.

That was until a rather impressive effort against Rubin Williams, a veteran who had previously fought for a world title. He lasted seven rounds before the doctor stopped the fight on cuts. Andre Ward then scored an eighth-round TKO over Jerson Ravelo, a 2000 Olympian, to win the NABO title in June 2008.

Beating Henry Buchanan by a shutout on all three cards to win the NABF crown this past February was something that signaled his arrival as a contender. Ward fought what was maybe the most dangerous fighter on his slate in May, and easily defeated Edison Miranda over the twelve-round distance. Since then, he has tuned up with a third-round TKO over Shelby Pudwill.

I know a lot of people expect Kessler to win this tournament. I don't know that I am one of them. I look upon him as a guy who has been somewhat sheltered, and if you look around on that record of his, you are not going to see anything in the win column that is particularly eye-popping.

When he moved up significantly in terms of his level of opposition, he lost, rather decisively, to Joe Calzaghe.

Okay, Calzaghe is industrious and relentless, and that is something he is not going to face everyday. However, I consider Kessler to be far from the most talented guy in this event. Many consider him the best in the division simply because HBO has told them so. That doesn't necessarily work with me.

Ward is a guy who has the talent to pull off the "upset." My problem with him is that whenever I have seen him fight, I keep looking for something that just doesn't come to the surface.

When he fought Miranda, it was supposed to be a major test against a power-punching contender, but Miranda greatly disappointed, an in turn I was a little disappointed that Ward couldn't take his man out. I don't know; maybe he just doesn't have that capability against the higher-echelon fighters. Indeed, the KO percentage (65%) is not awe-inspiring.

I have serious doubts that Ward has the experience to go in there and take the measure of a guy like Kessler. On the other hand, every time he's been called upon to move up, he's been able to get it done. Perhaps he can rise to the level of opposition. He also gets the "home field advantage" here, which turns the tables on what Kessler has almost always had going for him.

I actually find it hard to pick a winner here; I'm leaning toward Kessler, but one thing I am relatively confident with is that the fight is going the distance. For that reason, I am going OVER 9.5 rounds, listed at -240.

JAY'S PLAY: OVER 9.5 ROUNDS (-240) ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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