Boxing Betting Free Picks
posted May 12, 2009 at 12:07 EST in Boxing Free Picks
Super Middleweight Tilt - Andre Ward vs. Edison Miranda
by Charles Jay

BetUS Boxing Betting Odds:
Super Middleweights - 12 Rounds
May 16 -- San Jose
ANDRE WARD -300
EDISON MIRANDA +220
Over 9.5 Rounds -115
Under 9.5 Rounds -115
For online betting purposes, let's size up the contestants:
WARD (18-0, 12 KO's), the -300 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, is in for the biggest test of his career as he faces Edison Miranda. Ward was a great amateur boxer, having first won national championships at 165 and 178 pounds, the surging to the light heavyweight gold medal for the United States in the 2004 Olympics in Athens. This native of the Bay Area turned pro in December of 2004 with a stoppage of Chris Molina. He was brought along pretty slowly at first, the turned up his competition level a bit in July of 2007 when he scored a third-round stoppage of Francisco Diaz. Rubin Williams was a veteran who had previously fought for a world title, and he was Ward's opponent in March of 2008. Williams lasted seven rounds before the doctor stopped the fight on cuts. Ward then stopped Jerson Ravelo, a 2000 Olympian, in eight rounds to win the NABO title. In his last fight, he was supposed to get his stiffest test yet, but he scored a shutout on all three cards over Henry Buchanan to win the NABF crown.
MIRANDA (32-3, 28 KO's), the +220 underdog at BetUS, had about 150 amateur bouts in his native Colombia before turning pro in March of 2001. Each of his first 17 fights ended in first or second-round knockouts, and won the vacant NABA middleweight title (a regional championship) with a 12-round decision over Jose Varela in June of '05. Once he got to a higher level, his string of early knockouts more or less stopped (excluding a KO-1 of Willie Gibbs a year and a half ago). He was able to stop the aforementioned Eastman in seven rounds, but then lost his title opportunity when Abraham scored a unanimous decision. The next big fight was an eliminator against Kelly Pavlik in which he lost on a seventh-round TKO, a fight Pavlik absolutely dominated. After scoring a couple of wins against lesser-lights, he got a rematch with Abraham, this time at super middleweight, and was dispatched after going down three times in the fourth round. In his last fight, on March 20, he beat someone named Joey Vegas on a fifth-round TKO in London.
Unquestionably, Miranda's power is dangerous in this fight. That is one thing he can certainly do. But beyond that, he is somewhat limited. He isn't a very good technical boxer and there have to be questions, not only about his chin but also about his wherewithal, because the image of him fighting Kelly Pavlik is still etched in my mind. Miranda kind of fits the profile of the classic bully, in that he looks fearsome until the other guy starts to fight back, and when that happens, he sometimes folds like a cheap accordion. That performance against Pavlik was pretty disgraceful.
I know that Miranda's position, and that if his handlers, was that he was not fighting at the weight hat was right for him, bringing up questions as to how ell he was actually being handled (hey, you can't have it both ways, guys). So he moves to 168 and gets pummeled by Abraham in the rematch. He's out of excuses.
The problem with Ward is that though we know a lot about his amateur background, he is still somewhat of an unknown quantity as a pro because his overall level of opposition has not been strong. This will be by far the most danger he has faced. At least you can say that Miranda fought two of the best in the middleweight class (Pavlik, Abraham) as well as a solid super middleweight contender (Allan Green). Ward has been protected more, although it deserves mention that he did thoroughly dominate the capable Henry Buchanan.
My sense is that Ward is going to show superior skills here, and that Miranda is going to spend a lot of time trying to land a home run shot. As the fight progresses, that is, IF it progresses, I see Miranda getting tired but Ward staying relatively strong, which is odd to say about the less experienced guy. Let me put it this way: I think Ward can stop Miranda by making him miss and getting him frustrated and tired, and by the same token, if Miranda has a shot here I think it is going to be early, and there is no doubt that he can take advantage of the first Ward mistake if he can connect.
Either way, I am not looking for this one to get to the halfway mark of the tenth round. I am going "under" the 9.5 rounds in the BetUS boxing betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 9.5 ROUNDS (-115) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)



