Boxing Betting Free Picks
posted September 26, 2009 at 15:00 EST in Boxing Free Picks
Klitschko vs. Arreola for the WBC Heavyweight Belt
by Charles Jay
KLITSCHKO VS. ARREOLA: GOOD, HARD LESSON
BetUS Boxing Betting Odds
WBC Heavyweight title - 12 Rounds
September 26 - Los Angeles
VITALI KLITSCHKO -600
CHRIS ARREOLA +450
UNDER 7.5 ROUNDS -230
OVER 7.5 ROUNDS +180
For betting purposes, let's take a look at the contestants:
KLITSCHKO (37-2, 36 KO's), the -600 favorite, has a long list of accomplishments that really sum up the kind of athlete he is. Vitali was a kick-boxing world champion and also won the silver medal as a super heavyweight in the world amateur boxing championships in 1995.
He turned professional in November of 1996 with a KO-over Tony Bradham and none of his first ten opponents got beyond the second round. He continued to move up against trialhorses and/or former contenders, including Levi Billups, Julius Francis, Dicky Ryan and Jose Ribalta, stopping each, and in June of '99 blew out Herbie Hide in the second round to win the WBO version of the heavyweight title.
He defended against Ed Mahone and Obed Sullivan, then, with a big lead on the scorecards, quit on his stool with an injury against Chris Byrd on April Fools Day of 2000, raising a lot of questions about his fighting heart.
He took to the road back, chalking up wins over the likes of Ross Puritty (who had beaten his brother Wladimir), Vaughn Bean and Larry Donald, then got another opportunity against Lennox Lewis in June 2003. Klitschko rocked Lewis several times early in the fight, but was not able to put him away. Instead, he got cut and busted up by Lewis' jab, and after six rounds of a brutal fight where he was ahead on the scorecards, the doctor stopped it and Lewis remained champion.
After Lewis retired, Vitali was back in the hunt for a title, and in April of 2004, he stopped Corrie Sanders (another guy who had beaten his brother) in eight rounds to win the WBC title. After a defense against Danny Williams, he was supposed to meet up with Hasim Rahman, who had previously KO'd Lewis. Klitschko had an assortment of injuries that precluded him from defending the title against Rahman, and finally, after knee surgery, he announced his retirement in November of 2005. The WBC declared him a "champion emeritus" which fixed it so he could come back and fight for the title any time he wanted to, and after a layoff of almost three years, he did just that, beating Samuel Peter for eight rounds before it was stopped before the ninth (October 2008).
He's defended that WBC championship once, with a ninth-round TKO of Juan Carlos Gomez on March 21. He's suffered as many defeats in the political ring as he has in pro boxing, losing in races for mayor of Kiev as well as the Ukranian parliament. Did we mention he has a PhD in Sport Science.
ARREOLA (27-0, 24 KO's), the +450 underdog at BetUS, has grown a little - outward - since he was the 2001 National Golden Gloves champion at 178 pounds.
Arreola, a native of Los Angeles, turned pro in September of 2003 with a second-round TKO of Roosevelt Parker and went on to stop each of his first eight pro opponents, all within the first two rounds. Arreola was brought along very slowly, as a Latin heavyweight prospect in California, and fought his first significant opponent in November of '06 when he stopped previously undefeated Damian Wills in seven rounds. He later beat up Thomas Hayes, who had an overblown 26-1 record, and scored a disqualification victory over previously unbeaten Chazz Witherspoon.
Arreola got off the deck last November to score a spectacular third-round TKO Travis Walker. He landed a picture-perfect left hook to get the job done. Arreola's last fight was a TKO-4 over out-of-shape Jameel McCline on April 11.
Arreola is not a short guy, as he stands 6'4", but he will most certainly be giving up at least a few inches to Klitschko here. Vitali is far from the most polished boxer in the world, but he knows how to use his height by applying the jab. He'll even hold out his left hand at times to establish some distance, and that's the kind of thing Arreola is going to have a hard time getting through.
We know that Arreola has looked like a spectacular puncher at times, and we would not doubt that he has power, but his presence in a fight like this is primarily due to a couple of factors - one is that he is Latin and that is going to be a nice draw for the bout in Los Angeles, and the other is that he is the product of much desperation on the part of American promoters and American networks to find someone who can challenge for heavyweight laurels.
If you watch Arreola with an educated eye, you can tell that he throws wide punches and goes for a lot of home runs, and while that could have its effect if he is able to land squarely on Klitschko's chin (which is the case with many heavyweights) he will most likely pay for abandoning defense along the way. Arreola leaves himself wide open when he comes in, and for someone like Vitali, who may be mechanical but throws straight punches for the most part, that promises to be an easy ticket.
There is no way, if he were a legitimate threat to win a heavyweight title, that Arreola should have any trouble with a guy like Travis Walker, but he did. I'm not sure what kind of chin he has, but it is liable to be tested again and again here, and whether he can pass it is anybody's guess. He'll get hit, that's for sure.
When you line up the experience and the roster of opponents, there is no comparison. What does that mean? Well, if Arreola lands a big punch, maybe nothing, but putting himself in a position to land that punch, and following up on it, becomes a lot more difficult against Vitali Klitschko than against the "almost" guys he's been facing so far. It also means that if and when Arreola gets into trouble, it will be different than he's experienced before. That look of his, which looks like you don't want to meet him in a dark alley, won't mean a thing here.
I have a feeling it will be target practice for Klitschko, with a guy coming right into his punches, and although the round proposition should be more attractive, I really couldn't tell you whether Vitali will punish him for a while or take him right out. So I have to take the boring rote and go with Klitschko as the -600 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: KLITSCHKO TO WIN (-600) ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
