Boxing Betting Free Picks
posted November 28, 2009 at 15:00 EST in Boxing Free Picks
IBF Super Middleweight Title - Lucian Bute (-400) vs. Librando Andrade (+300)
by Charles Jay
IBF Super Middleweight Title
November 28 - Quebec City
Lucian Bute -400
Librado Andrade +300
Over 11.5 Rounds -230
Under 11.5 Rounds +180
For betting purposes, let's look at the contestants:
BUTE (24-0, 19 KO's), the -400 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, was a well-known amateur, winning a bronze medal in the World Championships in 1999, and also boxed in the 2003 World Championships, representing Romania, and got to the the third round of the tournament before losing. He turned pro in November of 2003 with a third-round TKO of Robert Muhammad. In his ninth pro fight, he went in there against former WBC super middleweight champion Dingaan Thobela, scoring a fourth-round TKO over the faded veteran.
Bute won the NABF 168-pound title in his next fight when he beat Carl Handy, and then, after he had vacated it, won it again with a stoppage in eight rounds over Kabary Salem in September 2005. Bute earned a shot at the IBF title when he won a decision over Sakio Bika in June 2007, and won the title in his next fight with a stoppage over Alejandro Berrio.
So far he's made three defenses; in one of them, he dominated shot 37-year-old former champ William Joppy, but last October had a very close call when fighting Librado Andrade, leading the fight the whole way but getting banged around in the final round.
He was actually knocked down with only two seconds left in the fight. Since a fighter can't be saved by the bell, Bute had to beat the count, and he did, which left Andrade on the short end of a decision loss, although it begged for a rematch. The last fight for Bute was a fourth-round stoppage over Fulgencio Zuinga on March 13.
ANDRADE (28-2, 21 KO's), the +300 underdog at BetUS, is a native of Mexico but grew up fighting in the United States. he began his pro career with a four-round decision over Marcus Harvey in August of 1999. He then went on to knock out seven of his next eight opponents, then went on a streak where he scored seven early stoppages in a row again.
The big win in the early part of his career was a 12-round decision over the very difficult (and undefeated) Willie Stewart in March of 2004. Then there was a series of impressive wins, coming against Tito Mendoza, Vitali Kopitko (a second-round KO) and Thomas Reid. In April 2006 he ended the career of Otis Grant with a seventh-round TKO, and that eventually led to a shot at the WBC and WBA titles against fellow unbeaten Mikkel Kessler.
Andrade fought gamely, but was generally outclassed, losing every round and the decision. A stoppage of Robert Stieglitz earned him an opportunity to fight Lucian Bute for the IBF 168-pound title last October. Andrade was beaten for most of the fight, but caught up to Bute in the last round, staggering him and then knocking him down with two seconds to go.
The referee gave him what some consider to be a long count, because Andrade allegedly didn't go back to his corner, but Bute got up, and that was pretty much the end of the fight. Andrade lost the decision. Last time out he got himself back into the title picture, scoring a rather easy decision against Vitali Tsypko.
Lucian Bute -400 vs Librado Andrade >> Join to Bet Now
In the last round of the first fight between these two, when Bute was floored, the referee stopped the count at six because Andrade supposedly was not in the corner, but that was nonsense. That referee, Marlon Wright, said that Bute would not have beaten the count if Andrade would have stayed in his corner. I'm sure about that. Since there were just two seconds left in the fight, the only thing that really mattered is that Bute got up at all.
When he did, he sort of fell into the ropes, at which point it was up to the discretion of this referee to rule as to whether he successfully got up, or at least it would have been, had the count gone forward on a continuous basis. Instead, it was delayed as Wright let Bute borrow some time. My guess is that in Montreal, and with Bute a "house" fighter, Wright would have given Bute the benefit of the doubt anyway.
Hell, he could have actually stopped the fight with about ten seconds left, because Bute was helpless at that point. In all fairness to Bute, I don't know whether you want to stop a fight like that when the guy is so far ahead on the cards. Indeed, he won the decision by four points, five points and eight points, and that even included the extra point for Andrade in that final round.
Well, that was then, and this is now. Andrade, who was pretty gutsy against Mikkel Kessler in his only other career loss, has fought his way into another title shot, defeating Vitali Tsypko, and I think we saw a couple of things in this fight - one is that for a change, Bute was being pressured by someone who wasn't hand-picked, or fading, and that Andrade knows what he has to do, and start doing earlier, to wear his guy down.
It was clear that Bute had not been extended like that in his career, and even though he is in his own right a very difficult guy to fight, at 6'2" and a southpaw to boot, he offered something of a formula, which is actually rather simple.
If Andrade can weather the storm and continue to make Bute fight three minutes of every round, there is a good chance that he will fade in the late going again. The only thing is, he has to get going a little bit earlier.
Bute is the guy with more technical skill; he has the crowd behind him, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he once again had officials very much to his liking, but as a 3/1 underdog who has arguably already knocked out the champion in the minds of many and who may hold a certain psychological edge because of it, I figure Andrade may be worth a small investment, so we're going with him as the dog in the BetUS professional boxing betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: ANDRADE TO WIN (+300) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
