Boxing Betting Free Picks
posted September 30, 2009 at 15:12 EST in Boxing Free Picks
Heavyweight Boxing - David Tua vs. Shane Cameron
by Charles Jay
Boxing Betting
TUA VS. CAMERON: THIRD ACT FOR TUA?
BetUS Boxing Betting Odds
Heavyweights - 12 Rounds
October 3 - Hamilton, New Zealand
DAVID TUA -200
SHANE CAMERON +160
For betting purposes, let's take a look at the contestants:
TUA (49-3-1, 42 KO's), the -200 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, is one of the more powerful heavyweights to come along in the last generation, yet in an era where there are as many as four championship widely recognized, has never held a world belt. He gave an indication of what he was capable of in his first pro fight, as he hit Ron Humes so hard that Humes broke his ankle. All of his first nine opponents went down and out in the first three rounds. Tua usually had to go rounds with the fighters who had a little more savvy, but his 19-second KO of future champion John Ruiz (March 1996) made a lot of people scared. This led to tough fights against David Izon and Oleg Maskaev, where he scored late KO's.
Tua suffered his first defeat the hands of the sensational Ike Ibeabuchi, but that was no shame. He got himself into the title picture with a controversial stoppage of Hasim Rahman in December of '98, and later a TKO-3 of Robert Daniels to set up a November 2000 fight with Lennox Lewis. In that bout his lack of true boxing skills really showed, as Lewis walked him around the ring for twelve rounds en route to a decision that came by ten rounds on one judges' card and eight rounds on another.
Two fights later, Chris Byrd's finesse and elusiveness were too much, as Tua lost another unanimous decision. He was also behind against the slick Fres Oquendo until scoring a ninth-round TKO, and followed that with a first-round knockout of Michael Moorer. He boxed to a draw in the rematch with Rahman, then stayed out of the ring for two years. He's fought lesser lights since, and his last bout was back on September of 2007, a two-round stoppage of Cerrone Fox.
CAMERON (23-1, 20 KO's), the +160 underdog at BetUS, is known as the "Mountain Warrior" and like David Tua, he brings some power into the ring. He debuted as a pro in November of 2002 when he stopped Winston Palu in the third round. In his tenth pro fight, he was already vying for the New Zealand heavyweight title, and he's added a number of titles since then. One of his biggest wins was an eighth-round knockout over Bob Mirovic for the WBA Pan African title in March 2007.
Cameron suffered his one and only professional loss when he was stopped in the 12th and final round by Friday Ahunanya in November 2007. Since then he has come back with four straight wins, among them a fifth-round TKO of Kevin Montiy last June. He put Terry Smith down twice en route to scoring a unanimous decision last September, and in his last bout, held on March 7, he had an eleventh-round stoppage of Robert Davis.
This is the fight that literally has a whole country spellbound in anticipation. They are doing something similar to what HBO does with its "24/7" series here in the United States. Over there you've got "Tua vs. Cameron: It's Strictly Business" to deal with.
We know that even as fighters get older, they rarely lose their pure punching power, which is why a fighter like David Tua can never be counted out. Tua has never, ever been known as a stylish boxer, and what he brings to the table is a left hook that my good friend, the late Hank Kaplan, who was widely known as the top boxing historian in the world, called "one of the best in the history of boxing, in the same league as Joe Louis"
Tua can indeed whack with the left, but that's been only part of the story. He also has a very strong chin, which has made him kind of unique among those heavyweights of note throughout history who were considered big punchers first. The problem for Tua is that he can't do anything "in between." In other words, he's not a boxer, and will have problems with anyone who possesses world-class boxing ability. That's not to say he can't get them in the end, but he is vulnerable while it lasts.
Certainly a concern is the fact that Tua has not fought in a couple of years, and while he was on his latest comeback he was not fighting a high caliber of opponent. Yes, his promoters were not taking a chance so as not to jeopardize what they hoped would be a big payday, but it also means we don't really know how much he has left, and the hiatus gave him a chance to get woefully out of shape.
When you look at Shane Cameron's record, you realize that while he's been much more active than Tua lately he is also a fighter who has been very carefully protected. There is nothing on his fight-by-fight ledger that remotely approaches the best Tua has been in the ring with, and he's done nothing significant at all on the world scene. If he were that good a fighter, you would have seen something like that by now.
I honestly don't know if he knows what to do with an opponent who can hit back. I'm hearing that Tua has worked his way into some kind of shape and if that is the case, I would rather go with a more proven commodity who has both early and late power over someone who, frankly, I don't consider to be all that much as I watch him on videotape; a standup fighter who will, incidentally, be open for a left hook.
I'll go with David Tua, the -200 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, in the "Fight of the Century" in New Zealand this weekend.
JAY'S PLAY: TUA TO WIN (-200) ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
