posted October 16, 2009 at 18:29 EST in Boxing Articles
Odds to Win the Super 6 World Boxing Classic
by Charles Jay
BetUS Sportsbook Odds - Boxing
What makes the Super Six World Boxing Classic an interesting proposition to handicap is the fact that it's not just one of those single-elimination deals where a guy loses and he's out. This one is going to be drawn out for a while, with each of the fighters guaranteed three bouts, after which time two of the six fighters will be sent home. At that point, the four remaining contestants will be involved in a single elimination "Final Four" if you will, until a champion is crowned.
To Win "Super 6" World Boxing Classic
(Super Middleweight Tournament)
- Mikkel Kessler +200
- Arthur Abraham +250
- Carl Froch +325
- Jermain Taylor +700
- Andre Ward +500
- Andre Dirrell +1000
It's going to constitute a lot of programming for Showtime, and with a legitimate purpose, but that's only part of the story.
If you put all the records of these fighters together, they are 163-4-1. That is indeed a "Super Six," and about as good a tournament field as you could hope to find.
Mikkel Kessler and Carl Froch have been world champions at 168 pounds. Jermaine Taylor has fought at 168 and has held the undisputed world championship at middleweight. Andre Ward and Andre Dirrell are the new kids on the block; Olympians who would immediately become superstars if they were to get through the entire tournament on top.
That's the thing about this event - it is impossible to get "steered" to a title; there is no such thing as "cherry picking" your opponent, and you will undoubtedly know who the true champion of the world is.
Frankly, I don't think I've ever seen anything like this before.
I don't mean to sound like a shill, because I don't work for Showtime, the promoters or have anything officially to do with it, but honestly, if every division went through this kind of a process, the sports of boxing would instantly gain back a lot of credibility. Sure, there are some guys who are left out, or who feel like they should be included, but a champion will be determined and the challengers can proceed from there.
The action starts on October 17, when Arthur Abraham "plays host" to Jermain Taylor in his adopted home country of Germany, and Carl Froch stays in his hometown of Nottingham, England as he tackles Andre Dirrell. We'll take a look at all the fights individually, but let's evaluate this as a "field" proposition, with a quick word or two about each of the six contestants:
MIKKEL KESSLER (+200) -- The fight for which Kessler has had the most exposure was his battle with Joe Calzaghe, where he hung in well for twelve rounds, though he lost clearly on all three cards. Interestingly, if you take a look at his line-by-line, you'll see some wins over solid fighters, but nothing that can be classified as sensational.
He appears to be a rugged competitor, but is rather mechanical, and kind of predictable. He could be vulnerable to a guy with natural talent, and maybe that's Andre Ward in the opening round fight where he has to travel to Ward's hometown. I can see Kessler getting to the Final Four, but someone will knock him off sooner or later.
ARTHUR ABRAHAM (+250) -- Like a lot of fighters who spend most of their career fighting in Europe, Abraham does not have a lot of star-studded names on his roster of opponents. I like this guy, though, because he's aggressive, somewhat heavy-handed, and comes at his opponent from odd angles. He is also a tough guy; it impresses me that he has been in with good punchers like Edison Miranda and Kofi Jantuah as has held up fine.
What might be a concern is that he has fought above 160 just once in recent years, but that might only handicap him against someone like Kessler, and he might be able to compensate for that in other ways. He'll give Taylor an especially rough time in their first-round bout.
CARL FROCH (+325) -- Froch was able to stop an exhausted Jermain Taylor with fourteen seconds left in the fight, but before that he was getting peppered. There is no question that Froch beings a lot of guts into the fray, and he can pop. He is also natural at this weight and has had some success at the world level.
Let me emphasize the word "some." There is nothing on Froch's resume, other than that win over Taylor that would intimidate anyone. You don't want to leave yourself wide open to him, and it's probably not wise to get into a war of attrition, but somebody talented and smart (Andre Dirrell?) could conceivably beat him on ability alone.
JERMAIN TAYLOR (+700) -- Taylor might have the best body of work out of anyone in this field; after all, he does have two wins against Bernard Hopkins, and there is power, even at the higher weight of 168 pounds. Taylor has a great deal of native ability, but the effect of that ability tends to diminish when you don't have the chin or stamina to last. Taylor has now snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against both Kelly Pavlik (the first time) and Carl Froch, and opponents are well aware that they can count on him getting tired in the late rounds. I don't see him getting through this whole thing.
ANDRE WARD (+500) -- Ward has a little "home cooking" going for him in the first round bout against Kessler, and he's got some major amateur credentials going for him, including the light heavyweight gold medal at the Athens Olympics.
Ward is a talented fighter, and he may have the talent to beat a guy like Kessler if he doesn't make a dumb mistake, but I don't consider his talent level to be extraordinary. He scored a near shutout over Edison Miranda, but should have been able to get his man out of there. I don't know that he possesses the kind of power that can turn a fight around dramatically against this level of competition, and four of these six guys have considerably more experience than him.
ANDRE DIRRELL (+1000) -- Dirrell is the most intriguing entry in this tournament, for several reasons. For one thing, his resume may be the least complete, or at least it is neck-and-neck with Ward in that regard. Yet, I think he is a special talent, possessing some "sudden" power and having the ability to switch from southpaw to orthodox rather seamlessly, which is much more rare than you think. He's got speed and accuracy, and these things that are hard to teach.
Here's a guy who has won a national amateur title at 125 pounds in 2001, and then just two years later he won at 165 pounds. That's Roy Jones-like, for those who remember Jones winning a national Golden Gloves at 139 one year and 156 the next. When you do something like that, your talent simply transcends weight divisions.
For good measure, Dirrell moved up another class in 2004 and won a bronze at 165 in the Olympics. Sure, he hasn't fought a bunch of world champions, but to me he has the most upside in the tournament and the most upside in the division, and in a format like this, which will take almost two years to complete, while some of the other guys are getting a bit older, he'll be getting better. If he can get to the final grouping of four, he may be the best fighter in the super middleweight class by that time. If I had to bet on only one fighter in this event, considering the price, it would be Dirrell. He’s a budding superstar.
