posted July 3, 2008 at 14:53 in Tennis Betting Trends

Tennis betting is one of those rare instances where home-court advantage isn’t a real concern for handicappers. Instead, there’s a much bigger environmental factor in play.

The difference among grass, clay and hard surfaces (such as concrete, asphalt and the new wave of synthetics) is critical at the highest levels of tennis. This week’s sports wagering action at Wimbledon is living proof. Venus Williams, the defending women’s singles champion, is 60-6 lifetime on grass heading into Friday’s semifinal against Elena Dementieva. Venus has won Wimbledon four times and been to the finals six times in the past eight years. But she’s never won the clay-court French Open; in fact, she’s only been to the semifinals once at Roland Garros, in 2002.

In the men’s draw, Roger Federer has won Wimbledon each of the last five years and is 75-11 lifetime on grass. But the French Open continues to elude him; Rafael Nadal has beaten Federer in the finals three years running. It’s almost a foregone conclusion that they will meet again at the Wimbledon final. Federer is a slight favorite on the championship futures market at –130, followed by Nadal at –110.

It all has to do with the bounce. Grass courts are ideal for the serve-and-volley game; the ball doesn’t bounce as high when it hits the court, so those players with the right combination of a booming serve and a long reach have a major advantage. Venus owns the Wimbledon record for women with a 127-mph serve, and at a lanky 6-foot-1, not much gets past her. Federer usually takes a bit off his serve (still hitting 120-mph on a regular basis), but dominates with an aggressive forehand return featuring extreme topspin – keeping the ball even lower and harder to reach on grass surfaces.

Despite these advantages, the tennis odds are creeping further away from Williams and Federer with every year they age. Williams is actually second on the Wimbledon futures market at +120 to her younger sister Serena, who is even money to win her third title at SW17. It was Serena hoisting the Rosewater Dish when the two sisters met at the finals in 2002 and 2003.

As for Federer, he had to rally last year to beat Nadal in five sets in the men’s final. There’s a sense that there will be a changing of the guard soon; Nadal has been the world’s No. 2 behind Federer for three years, and at age 22 is nearly five years younger than his arch-nemesis. But Nadal has never won a major outside the French Open – not even on the hardcourt. It may be a while yet before he knocks Federer from his throne.