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posted October 5, 2007 at 22:07 in NFL Free Picks

Week 5 NFL Odds – Falcons vs. Titans

by Eric Williams

The Atlanta Falcons (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U) got their first win of the season last week, beating the Houston Texans 26-16. Atlanta quarterback Joey Harrington has looked very solid the past two weeks but will be severely tested by the Titans’ defense in this contest. Atlanta ranks 23rd in overall offense and 21st in overall defense.

The Tennessee Titans (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS, 03 O/U) never seem to put up jaw-dropping statistics, all they do is win almost every time exciting quarterback Vince Young lines up behind center. The Titans are ranked just 22nd in overall offense but have the league’s second-best rushing attack, averaging 173.7 yards per contest.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my Free NFL Betting Picks:

Key Falcons Trends

The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on Grass.

The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.

The Falcons are 45-10-2 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Key Titans Trends

The Titans are 9-1 ATS in their last ten games following a ATS win.

The Titans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games on Grass.

The Titans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a S.U. win.

Key Totals Trends

The Under is 5-0 in Falcons last five games on Grass.

The Over is 6-0-1 in Falcons last seven games in October.

The Over is 8-1-1 in Titans last ten games following a bye week.

The Over is 8-1 in Titans last nine games as a favorite.

Key Head-to-Head Trends

No trends available.

Analysis: I like the Titans to win this game, but my keen football betting sense tells me the Falcons are going to cover the spread after getting their first win under new head coach Bobby Petrino. Take the Falcons to cover in a losing effort.

NFL Free Picks: Titans 24 Falcons 17

01:00 PM EST NFL Odds

Atlanta Falcons +8 -110

Tennessee Titans -8 -110

Under 40½ -110

Over 40½ -110 

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