Posted on 4/12/2008 11:45:36 AM

UFC Sports Betting - Matt Serra – Can He Shock The World Again?

By Charles Jay

Georges St. Pierre has been waiting for this moment for a full year, and now he will get his chance to extract revenge for his most bitter career setback on Saturday, April 19 at UFC 83 at the Bell Centre in Montreal, when he takes on New York's Matt Serra, with the UFC's welterweight (170-pound) title on the line.

BetUS UFC Betting Odds

UFC Welterweight Title

April 19 - Montreal

GEORGES ST. PIERRE -500

MATT SERRA +350

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS -170

UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS +130

It could be semi-accurate, I guess, to call Matt Serra the UFC's version of the Buster Douglas story. Granted, when he fought Georges St. Pierre for the organization's welterweight title last April, he was not a 42/1 underdog, as Douglas was when he fought and beat Mike Tyson in February of 1990, but he did go off at 11/1, with many people seeing it as just a stepping stone for St. Pierre on his way to a big-money rubber match with Matt Hughes.

Serra, as we know by now, upset that applecart, as he stunned St. Pierre with a series of punches before putting an end to it at 3:25 of the first round. Now it comes time for the long-awaited rematch, and while Serra is getting some more respect from the oddsmaker (he is +350 in the BetUS UFC betting odds), he is still not being accorded the attention he feels he's due. Indeed, a recent story in one of the Canadian papers detailed how St. Pierre has been ticketed for about nine different magazine covers, while Serra didn't get a tumble, despite being the champion.

Well, despite being the champion, sort of. Serra never defended his title, pulling out of a potential fight with Hughes because of a herniated disk, and although the UFC revels in positioning itself as a fresh departure from the chaos of boxing, it nonetheless seems every bit as intent on confusing its fans with "interim" titles whenever the situation presents itself, so St. Pierre, who was knocked silly by Serra, is the champion in this one, having had the "interim" designation bestowed upon him by virtue of his second win against Hughes in the rubber match that happened after all.

Since that unfortunate fight, GSP has been active, with two fights, scoring solid wins against Hughes and Josh Koscheck, while Serra is appearing for the first time in a year. And St. Pierre's body of work is obviously superior, with that pair of wins over Hughes, along with triumphs over B.J. Penn, Frank Trigg and Sean Sherk. And that's just for starters.

But Serra possessed the great equalizer, which was a big roundhouse right hand that sent St. Pierre to the canvas and was followed by a flurry of unanswered blows that forced referee John McCarthy to stop the bout. After the fight, GSP followed something that has been traditional in boxing by making excuses. He talked about a knee injury that didn't allow him to train enough; he talked about some of his personal issues. Oh, and of course he fired his manager (It is expressly stated in the "excuse handbook" that one must fire either the trainer or the manager after a disheartening defeat).

I lost a little respect for him there. I always wondered why when the underdog loses a fight, it's not because of any excuses HE might have at the ready, but always because the favorite was so superior?

I know that St. Pierre gets this bout in very friendly territory in Montreal, and that everyone saw Serra's win as a fluke. I am also aware of the opinion of most 'established" fighters about those who are more or less a product of The Ultimate Fighter series created by the UFC and televised on Spike. In his book "Made in America," Hughes wrote,

"The result of the match (St. Pierre-Serra) was a given, because the accomplished fighter was taking on the winner of a reality show," then, "Georges had beaten Sean (Sherk) and me; I would have bet the house on him. And if they fought again, I still would bet the house on Georges."

Will it be "one house, coming up?"

I don't know, but I think there is a danger in selling Serra short. He may not be as well-rounded a performer as St. Pierre, but he does put a couple of distinct talents together: we know that he is a world-class jiu-jitsu competitor, who will always be a threat if he finds himself on the ground, and we have seen in more than one fight that he can hurt anyone if he connects with his right hand. He knocked down Karo Parisyan. He hurt B.J. Penn too. He understands something that is taught from the ground up in the sport of boxing - the prevailing discipline as far as the stand-up mode in MMA is concerned - which is that body punching often has a deleterious effect on the opponent.

And if he puts together the right kind of game plan, the 5'6" fireplug will use his lack of height to advantage, slipping inside St. Pierre's reach, smothering potential kicks and getting close enough to land those big rights. Believe me when I tell you that it is a tremendous psychological disadvantage to know your opponent has knocked you out with head blows before.

Serra is a tough customer as well. He went the distance with Penn and Parisyan, and was only taken out inside the distance by a well-timed spinning backfist from Shonie Carter in what was his first UFC fight. St. Pierre has the more impressive skill set, but Serra has enough fortitude to at least extend things for a while.

So we're going OVER the 1.5 rounds as posted in the BetUS UFC betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: OVER 1.5 (-170) ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay of www.eBookies.com is a former manager, matchmaker and color commentator in professional boxing. He currently pulls no punches in the BetUS Locker Room)