Posted on 5/5/2008 4:06:34 PM

UFC Futures Betting – UFC 86 – Who Is For Real?

By Charles Jay

BetUS Sportsbook bettors of mixed martial arts will be in store for an extra special treat on July 5 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, when Forrest Griffin, a past hero of the UFC reality program "The Ultimate Fighter," steps into the Octagon against former PRIDE star and current UFC icon Quinton Jackson with the light heavyweight (205-pound) championship at stake.

BetUS UFC Betting Odds

UFC 86

July 5 -- Las Vegas

UFC Light Heavyweight Title

QUINTON JACKSON -280

FORREST GRIFFIN +210

In the process of releasing some of my content to the boxing community, I have been known to be rather critical when it comes to the NBC-turned-ESPN reality show "The Contender." And it's not necessarily criticism of the concept of the program itself, but rather the way it has been executed in producing the quality of contestants as they were projected into the true reality of things, which is the world-class level of professional opposition.

Those who have emerged from "The Contender" as commodities have in fact not legitimately been contenders, but in fact "pre-tenders," and until the direction of that show moves itself in step with, well, reality, that is not going to change.

But that's not quite the case with the mixed martial arts counterpart to that, is it?

"The Ultimate Fighter," the UFC's reality-based series on Spike TV that contributed greatly to the eventual popularity of that organization, has managed to produce some fighters who were able to be competitive with some of the best in the world. One of them, of course, was Matt Serra, who won the UFC's welterweight championship last April with a knockout of Georges St. Pierre (he has since lost the rematch).

Perhaps another TUF alumnus who will strike gold is Forrest Griffin.

GRIFFIN (15-4), the +210 underdog in the BetUS UFC betting odds, was the first-ever winner of "The Ultimate Fighter" in the light heavyweight division, and was rewarded a lucrative UFC contract as a result. And unlike some of the boxing "contenders" who failed when confronted by reality, Griffin was experienced some success when stepping up to fight world-class opposition. His breakthrough fight, once he entered the UFC, came against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua in September of last year. And he has recently been anointed by UFC president Dana White as a "Number One contender" who was next in line to fight light heavyweight champ JACKSON (28-6), the -280 favorite at BetUS. The whole thing actually comes with an additional storyline, as Jackson and Griffin were both tabbed to be captains for their respective teams in "The Ultimate Fighter 7."

The major question as this fight approaches is not whether Griffin can fight at all, but whether he can fight well enough to defeat one of the sport's finest pound-for-pound competitors. Rampage certainly fits that description.

If we were to operate on the principle that if A beats B, and B beats C, then A should beat C, we might have a rock-solid case for Griffin here. After all, Griffin choked out Shogun, who had previously beaten Jackson on kicks, back in April 2005 on a PRIDE show.

But as we know (or should know), those kind of neat little theories don't always work. There are styles to consider, and one must also think about the circumstances under which the fights constituting this kind of comparison took place. In the case of Jackson, it may also bear mentioning that his loss to Rua took place in a different organization and in a ring rather than a cage.

Griffin is known among MMA fans to have great stamina, and it has been noted by many observers that Rua came into the bout with Griffin in such a condition that he got winded early, making for a short evening. But I doubt anyone will expect Rampage to run out of gas that easily. In the past he has gone excessive lengths of time in PRIDE bouts, and most recently he went five hard rounds with Dan Henderson in a bout to unify the light heavyweight titles. Griffin has yet to go five rounds in a mixed martial arts match, and although he has shown the capacity to last long, keep in mind he'll have to do it against someone who will have the pressure on from the outset. That's a lot to deal with when you're going into the deep end of the pool for the first time.

With wins over Henderson, Chuck Liddell (twice), Kevin Randleman and more, Jackson, who I would classify as a very nasty competitor, has a breadth of experience that is impossible for Griffin to match. And he obviously has a broad arsenal to throw at his man. One of the knocks on Griffin is that he gets hit too much, and at 6'3" he will present a big target for Jackson, who is not only strong on the ground but adept with his strikes.

Maybe a quick and simple review of what the odds mean might be in order at this point. When we say that Jackson is a "-280" favorite, we're talking about anyone betting on him agreeing with the proposition that he has at least a 28/38, or 73.7% chance of winning. That's about three in four. When you bet Griffin at the +210 price, you are saying that Griffin essentially has a better than 10/31, or 32.2% chance of emerging victorious.

I would say, off-hand, that Griffin doesn't get to that threshold, but Jackson does. And when I say that I am in no way disparaging Griffin's "reality' roots. I know that he is being pumped up by the UFC as someone very viable and marketable, which would certainly strengthen the TUF franchise, but to go in and fight a fit Jackson does represent a step up in class for him. In two other bouts against top people - Keith Jardine and Tito Ortiz - he came out on the losing side. I think Rampage is right when he says that Griffin has never fought anybody like him.

THAT will be the reality of this one.

JAY'S PLAY: JACKSON BY THIRD-ROUND KO (-280)

(Charles Jay of www.eBookies.com is a former manager, matchmaker and color commentator in professional boxing. He currently pulls no punches in the BetUS Locker Room)