Posted on 4/21/2008 6:06:45 PM

UFC Betting – Looking Ahead to UFC 87 Lesnar vs. Coleman

By Charles Jay

UFC 83 was good if not better then advertised. After that fantastic event on April 19th we here at BetUS Sportsbook would like to take a long look ahead at future betting opportunities and break down the odds. UFC 87 is a ways away but why not be informed early on? Brock Lesnar, who wasn't doing badly until he was submitted by Frank Mir in his UFC debut, will take to the Octagon again at UFC 87 on August 19, when he will take on MMA legend Mark Coleman, the first-ever UFC heavyweight champion, who is trying to be a "comeback kid" at age 43. The fight will take place at the Target Center in Minneapolis.

BetUS UFC Betting Odds

August 19 -- Minneapolis

BROCK LESNAR -280

MARK COLEMAN +210

I am one of those people who believe the UFC was not unhappy at all that Brock Lesnar, the former WWE heavyweight champion, lost in the first round to Frank Mir in his UFC debut in January. I think it was important to the UFC, which prefers to build the brand over building stars, to position itself as an endeavor too rough for someone involved in "sports entertainment" to engage in.

Of course, there is a lot more to Lesnar than that. He is legitimately a great athlete, having won the 2000 NCAA heavyweight wrestling championship while attending the University of Minnesota, before capturing the WWE championship on three different occasions and becoming the organization's youngest champion ever.

But most of the public knew him principally from the so-called "fake" sport he gained fame and fortune from, and knowing the way these guys (UFC) think, I honestly believe they felt their product would look less substantive if someone essentially walked in cold and beat one of their top heavyweights. One MMA insider, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, concurred with that. "It is more critical to the UFC, in the long run, to build their brand than to make the shot-term money that an attraction like Lesnar can bring," he said. "It wouldn't look good for someone to come in from something like pro wrestling and dominate things."

Some people from pro wrestling believe there is a danger of that happening.

I had a long conversation with Kurt Angle, another former WWE champ who had a storied rivalry with Lesnar, and flirted with an entry into MMA. Angle is not necessarily the biggest fan of Lesnar on a personal level, but believes that with more experience, Lesnar can become a devastating force in MMA. "Look at what kind of athlete this guy is," Angle said. "He basically walked in off the street into the Minnesota Vikings training camp, having not played football for many years, and they thought enough of him that they wanted him to go to Europe for development. Just give him some time. He is capable of doing a lot in MMA."

Whether enough time has passed to allow for that yet is a subject of some debate. He is younger and probably stronger than Coleman, and also has an amateur wrestling background. But whereas Lesnar has only a couple of MMA fights, Coleman has all the experience in the world, having fought some of the best the sport has had to offer for the last decade, including a couple of bouts with Fedor Emilianenko, regarded by many as the best pound-for-pound fighter alive. Lesnar can't come close to duplicating the kind of know-how that is developed through that kind of combat.

And of course, Coleman, former NCAA champion himself who made it all the way to the Olympic Games (finishing 7th in 1992) is widely regarded as the originator of the "ground 'n pound." However, he's been out of action for almost two years, and naturally has some wear and tear on the body.

But is Lesnar all finished making the kind of "rookie mistakes" that did him in against Mir? How could I possibly believe that? One fight does not make for substantially more experience. Although he could conceivably come out and rush Coleman, not allowing him to settle into the fight (always a concern for guys with rust), there's enough chance of him making that one error, however subtle, that his worldly-wise opponent can seize the advantage.

I'm not sure the UFC's "positioning" philosophy - at least as I perceive it - will have any direct effect on this fight, but I can tell you they are not knowingly putting Lesnar in with someone with the intention of the opponent rolling over.

I understand that Coleman is aging and perhaps over the hill, and that there is a certain "unknown" surrounding him because of that. But the experience and accomplishments on Coleman's part add up to value for him as this much of an underdog, as does the activity provided by the betting public, swayed by the "Lesnar buzz," which is likely to move the line even more in the direction of a better potential payoff for the former champion.

So I'll grab the +210 on Coleman in the BetUS UFC betting odds, and look for that number to possibly get even higher.

JAY'S EARLY PLAY: COLEMAN (+210) **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay of www.eBookies.com is a former manager, matchmaker and color commentator in professional boxing. He currently pulls no punches in the BetUS Locker Room)