posted May 12, 2008 at 18:11 in UFC / MMA Articles
UFC Betting – Betting Heavy on Lightweights and Light Heavies – Sizing Up 84
BetUS Sportsbook bettors may have noticed that the next UFC show - UFC 84 - promises to be a much more intriguing all-around card than many of the sports betting pay-per-view shows they've offered up recently. In terms of marquee online betting bouts, it goes three-deep - with a championship match and two other encounters where title aspirants go into the Octagon with iconic MMA figures would want another shot at the throne.
Let's take a brief look at all three of these fights:
BetUS UFC Betting Odds
UFC Lightweight Championship
BJ PENN -230
SEAN SHERK +180
In his title win over Joe Stevenson at UFC 80, Penn (the -230 favorite in the BetUS UFC online betting odds) joined Randy Couture as the only two UFC fighters to win championships in two different weight divisions. This one could be more of a challenge for him. After all, Penn has won only three of his last six fights, and Sherk (the +180 underdog at BetUS) is regarded by many as something of an "uncrowned champion" in the lightweight class, since he did not lose the title in the Octagon but instead was stripped due to a steroid suspension. At the same time, that suspension has brought inactivity, as Sherk has fought just once since October of 2006. Penn has fought a couple of times in the past year. It's not so much how busy he's been, however, but who he's been busy with throughout his career. Penn has less in the way of fights than Sherk, but the roster of his opponents, by comparison, indicates that his experience has been of more quality. Sherk has faced two major road blocks in his career - Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes - and has come up short against both. Penn at least has a win over Hughes, not to mention Matt Serra and Jens Pulver. I like Penn, although I think this goes to a decision.
BetUS UFC Betting Odds
Light Heavyweights (3 rounds)
WANDERLEI SILVA -185
KEITH JARDINE +145
Silva's had three losses in a row, which is not all that unusual if you're fighting top-level people. And he certainly has, in Mirko Cro Cop, Dan Henderson and Chuck Liddell. And its takes a lot to beat him; for example, Henderson landed a picture-perfect left hook, and Liddell engaged him in one of the most engrossing struggles in recent UFC history. Jardine (+145 in the BetUS MMA betting odds) came to the UFC from The Ultimate Fighter 2, and scored his signature win over Chuck Liddell at UFC 76 last September. Jardine also knocked out Forrest Griffin, so he is not without credentials. Jardine would seem to have enough power to get the job done, and he kicks well, which might bother Silva. But Silva (the -185 favorite at BetUS) is maybe the better brawler and might be more durable. It will take a heck of a lot to get him out of there. A lot of MMA observers were wondering just what the hell he was thinking about when Houston Alexander, a rather nondescript fighter, knocked him out at UFC 71. Silva has a huge edge in experience; he has fought just about everyone. And I'm figuring he'll find a way to win this inside the distance.
BetUS UFC Betting Odds
Light heavyweights (3 rounds)
LYOTO MACHIDA -220
TITO ORTIZ +175
Ortiz (the +175 underdog in the BetUS odds) offers name value. Does he offer anything else? That, I guess, is what we'll find out. In his last fight, he was unimpressive against Rashard Evans. Before that, he lost to Chuck Liddell. And that was preceded by a pair of wins over fading Ken Shamrock. On top of all this, Ortiz is in his last fight with the UFC (at least for now), having spoken out against the organization and his former handler, Dana White, and making some plans to put together his own promotion. There is nothing the UFC would love more than to send him out a loser, especially against someone they have high hopes for. It could be that Lyoto Machida (-220 at BetUS) is the next big thing, and he has plowed through all twelve opponents, including wins over Rich Franklin and B.J. Penn, so he is hardly untested. And he has spread those fights out over several years, so he is hardly green either. He is fresher and less shopworn. Ortiz is being brought in not to recapture past glory, but as a stepping stone. My feeling is that he will serve as just that. This goes to a second round, but perhaps not far beyond that.
We'll be back later in the week to discuss these matches in more detail!
(Charles Jay of www.eBookies.com is a former manager, matchmaker and color commentator in professional boxing. He currently pulls no punches in the BetUS Locker Room)
