Posted on 5/23/2007 2:09:56 PM

Triple Crown Betting – Three Dreaded Words at Preakness

By Brian Mulligan

Thrill of victory, the agony of defeat and three dreaded words. Nobody revels in failure, but the words Carl Nafzger uttered during the stretch run of the Preakness Stakes, ‘we got it’, came back to bite him big time.

The TV feed was isolated on Nafzger and owner James Tafel and they caught them almost celebrating and then getting hit with a bolt of reality when Street Sense was nailed on the money by Curlin.

After watching thousands of races in the Press Box in Southern California, the three dreaded words were like an albatross on the Titantic.

No matter how big a lead a horse had, or no matter how fortuitous a bet appears, it was common knowledge that one never said ‘we got it’ to a fellow bettor. It is viewed as the proverbial kiss of death and it sure worked out that way for the Street Sense camp.

The race itself was sensational.

 

As projected, the pace was hot. Flying First Class was beaten to the punch and to the lead by local charge Xchanger who set :22.83 and :45.75 splits. By the time they had run six furlongs Hard Spun, who may have been put to the drive a tad too soon, had a 2-length lead after a 1:09.80 split.

And then everything seemed to make Sense. At the top of the lane, Street Sense had blown past the field and went by Curlin like he was a statue. He looked about as home free as one could be, but he started gawking around and then Curlin dug in and got the advantage in the final jump.

Final time for the race was a record-tying 1:53.46 and, considering that Curlin stumbled at the break and then re-rallied, his 111 winning Beyer stands up very well. Veteran race watchers can count on their hands the times they have seen horses passed, then come back and win.

Last year’s five and a quarter-length Preakness winner Bernardini put up a 113 Beyer, and it was a harbinger of things to come. He went on to record winning Beyers of 114, 116, and 117 before losing the BC Classic in a photo with a 115 figure.

The splits Curlin overcame were about a full second faster than the splits Bernardini encountered. This year the mile was timed in 1:34.68 and last season the mile split was 1:35.73, and the final time was also a full second faster this year.

And that speaks volumes.

Many will say mistakes were made, and maybe they were, but things happen when you have to make instant decisions. Mario Pino may have moved too early with Hard Spun, and maybe Calvin ‘Boo Boo’ Borel should have tried to be a bit more patient, but these are races not movie scripts.

How can you fault the riders when you consider that the three top jockeys in the Preakness have won a total of nearly 14,000 races and their mounts collectively have earned over $300 million?

What’s next?

 

Curlin is under consideration for the Belmont Stakes, while Nafzger says, if he was a betting man, he wouldn’t like the chances of his charge going to New York.

The fact that Curlin is still learning and that he raced greenly in the Preakness suggests the best may be yet to come.

You can never judge a crop of horses really until the fall when they face elders, but the early indications are that there are some special animals in the Classics this season.

NEUMAN

The name inspires the great Jerry Seinfeld bit when his nemesis Neuman would try to foil one of Jerry’s newest twists but Magna CEO Michael Neuman has his own little comedy thing going on as his employer’s spokesman on the Preakness podium.

Instead of referring to Curlin’s rider Robby Albarado, he called him Robby Alvarez and this type of nonsense is typical of why Magna and the tracks they own have no clue and don’t care about the average fan or bettor.

How can you not know the players in the Preakness? There were only 9 riders in the race, and only one had a name that even started with A.

To call on another Seinfeld moment, this one with Terry Hatcher, ‘they are real and they are spectacular’ but this time in a bad way.

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2007 Belmont Stakes.