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posted June 6, 2008 at 13:50 in UFC / MMA Articles

After a long and turbulent sports betting road featuring a seemingly endless list of changes to its lineup, UFC 85 is finally here. And there's no better place to make a UFC betting wager on it than BetUS, who have the full card available for wagers. As usual, there's a number of interesting plays available for those of you who like to live dangerously. No guts, no glory, right? Let's break down some of the fights:

Matt Hughes (-220) vs Thiago Alves (+170)

There's a lot of people out there giving Alves the edge on Hughes, and even I was giving the scrappy 'Pitbull' the edge when I first heard about this fight. But after watching the Countdown to UFC85 show, I started to have my doubts. There was simply too much footage of Alves out at the clubs partying and references to him showing up late for training sessions. At the same time, if Matt Hughes is on his way out then no one bothered to tell him. He's already agreed to fight Matt Serra after this and has asked for another title shot if he wins his next two.

While Alves has looked good in his past fights, his competition has been nowhere near the level of Matt Hughes. Some people are pointing to Alves' domination of the stylistically similar Chris Lytle (who Hughes dragged to a decision in 2007) as proof he can handle Hughes, which is just bogus on so many levels. Chris Lytle was a perpetually inconsistent fighter who never managed to win more than twice in a row in the UFC. Matt Hughes on the other hand is one of the most consistently dominant fighters in the history of the sport. Even when he has a bad night, he's usually able to pull out a win. His only losses in the UFC come at the hands of BJ Penn and Georges St Pierre.

I foresee this fight going much like the first encounter between Matt Hughes and Georges St Pierre. While Alves may put up a good fight, Hughes' experience and skill will allow him to capitalize on Thiago's mistakes and bring him a win. So this time my advice to you is this: Beware the underdog.

Brandon Vera (-200) vs Fabricio Werdum (+160)

Vera is coming off a disappointing loss to Tim Sylvia. Werdum came back from a poor start to knock out former contender Gabriel Gonzaga in the second round. It's worth noting that Werdum has never been stopped in a fight ... all three of his losses have come by decision. To me, this actually makes him more dangerous for Vera than the average opponent. If he can weather the storms that Vera throws at him, there's a good chance that he'll be able to catch the young and brash fighter in a submission.

There's no doubt that Vera is going to come out agressive and push the pace, hard. He's been promising an entertaining fight to the fans from the day the fight was announced. Again, I think this plays to Werdum's advantage. Say what you will about the excitement level of Arlovski vs Werdum, but Arlovski won the fight because he was patient and wasn't willing to chase Werdum to the ground. Will Vera be able to resist dropping into Fabricio's guard after bowling him over with strikes? I doubt it.

Brandon Vera's record is short but it's impressive ... out of 8 wins, he's got 6 knock outs. Does this mean he can take out Werdum? Possibly. But I'm basing my pick on Fabricio's experience with other hard hitting fighters like Andrei Arlovski, Aleksander Emelianenko, Alistair Overeem, and Sergei Kharitonov. If they couldn't finish him, I don't see why I should assume Vera can too. I anticipate Werdum playing it defensive and catching Vera with a submission.

Michael Bisping (-350) vs Jason Day (+250)

Not quite the biggest odds difference on the card, but I'd pick this fight as upset of the night. Michael Bisping's odds are driven by all the face time he's gotten ... the guy is a star personality with the UFC, dispite several shaky performances. Jason Day on the other hand is a virtual unknown. While all the other fighters at UFC 83 were being mobbed by fans, Day wandered around unmolested. Perhaps if more people saw how badly he dominated Alan Belcher in the preliminary fights that weekend, the odds would be different. But as it stands this is probably your best bet to catch some really good underdog action.

Let's take a bit of a closer look at Jason Day: he's got a very respectable 17-5 record, with recent wins over UFC veterans Jonathan Goulet and David L'Oiseau. He's split his winning record with 7 knockouts and 7 submissions, proving that he's got lots of tools at his disposal. In his fight against Alan Belcher, he used the rubber guard to trap Belcher's upper body and then unleashed a fury of elbows on the confused fighter.

While Michael Bisping looked good against Charles McCarthy, it's good to note that McCarthy came into the fight at 2-2 in the UFC and hadn't fought in over a year and a half. While you can blame his size on questionable performances against Rashad Evans and Matt Hamill, there's no denying that Bisping put his neck on the chopping block several times against Elvis Sinosic and almost paid the price for it. If he makes the same sloppy mistakes he's known for making against Day, he's going to lose, pure and simple.

Thiago Tavares (-500) vs Matt Wiman (+350)

I'm not exactly sure why the odds are so wide on this fight. Matt Wiman is on a three win streak and keeps looking better and better. While he showed a lot of talent in his first two wins in the UFC, he made a mountain of technical mistakes on the ground. He lost position over and over couldn't capitalize when he had fighters in bad spots. But in his third UFC fight against Justin Buchholz, his jiu jitsu was tight and he used it to take his opponent down, pressure him with hard strikes, and sink in a choke. Many of his former problems seemed to have been dealt with, and I'm expecting him to come in even better against Tavares.

Perhaps Tavares is reaping some reward for being another Thiago in an organization where the other Thiagos are doing so well. But while this Thiago has a solid 13-1 record, he has struggled in the UFC, with 3 of his 4 fights going to decisions. He lacks the knockout power of Thiago Silva and the aggression of Thiago Alves. What you're left with is a competant ground fighter who hasn't proved if he's able to hang in the UFC.

Last but not least, take a look at a common fighter: Michihiro Omigawa. Both Wiman and Tavares took on the Japanese judo fighter, and both won their fights by decision. But Tavares looked confused and frustrated in his win, with Omigawa stifling his offense using an aggressive butterfly guard. Wiman on the other hand spent the three rounds beating Omigawa like a drum and consistently mounting or taking his back. I don't think I have to tell you that I think Matt Wiman is being seriously under-rated coming into this fight, and is a very decent pick considering the odds.

Ryan Harkness is the head editor of the mixed martial arts community site Fightlinker.com and host of the top rated MMA podcast The Low Blow.