Posted on 1/23/2008 8:15:13 PM

Australian Open Tennis Betting Picks: Nadal vs. Tsonga

By Nila Amerova

Melbourne, Australia – Billed as the matchup of the tournament, World No.2 Rafael Nadal vs. No.38 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the most anticipated of the Australian Open Semifinal matches. Scheduled to start on Thursday January 24, 2008 at 3:30 AM Eastern Time, betting on Rafael Nadal opened at -500 on the money line to win the match; the odds have since moved to -400 on the money line. Although Nadal is still the bookies favourite to win the match, it would appear bettors are speculating on Tsonga for the upset. Bet on who you think will emerge as the winner in the blockbuster matchup between Nadal and Tsonga.

Match Time: 3:30 AM Eastern Time, Thursday January 24, 2008.

Tennis Betting Line:

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga +5½ -120 +250 Over 38 -125

Rafael Nadal -5½ -120 -400 Under 38 -115

To win first set Odds:

Jo Wilfried Tsonga (1st Set) +175 Over 10 -140

Rafael Nadal (1st Set) -250 Under 10 EV

Tennis Prediction: Tsonga has proven to be one of the underlying stories of the 2008 Australian Open. In 2007, Tsonga compiled a 14-10 mark in ATP tournaments and 24-5 in Challengers with 4 titles. Tsonga has never won an ATP title, his best Grand Slam result in 2007 was the fourth round of Wimbledon, where he lost to compatriot Richard Gasquet 4-6, 3-6, 4-6.

There is no question Tsonga has had an impressive start to his 2008 season. While in Sydney he crashed out of the first round against Andreas Seppi, in Melbourne, after upsetting Andy Murray in his opening match, he has not looked back, topping all in his wake to reach the semifinal. There is a lot of value to be had speculating on the underdog, as he has already defied the odds to reach this point. However, he is a long shot bet against Nadal.

The biggest disadvantage going against Tsonga is fitness. While he has shed weight since we saw him last in 2007, and worked himself into great playing form, he has never been tested in the best of five sets. Going up against Nadal – one of the best in enduring energy-sapping five set marathon matches, Tsonga will have to try to seize the match from the first point.

This is easier said than done, as Nadal has yet to drop a set at the Australian Open. Moreover, Nadal, when winning the first set in a Grand Slam, holds an impressive 52-1 match winning record (the only time Nadal lost a match after winning the first set was at the 2007 US Open in the quarterfinal against David Ferrer). Compounded by a perfect 5-0 record in Grand Slam semifinals (2005-07 Roland Garros and 2006-07 Wimbledon), Nadal’s odds to win the match outright at -400 on the money line, as well as his odds to win the first set at -250, hold value.

Against Tsonga, Nadal owns a 1-0 record, defeating the Frenchman in the R32 of the 2007 US Open 7-6(3) 6-2 6-1. Nadal secured the victory over Tsonga at a point in the 2007 season when his problem with tendonitis (which was in both knees) was the most acute.

Tennis Free Pick: Nadal to win the first set and to win the match in four sets.

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.