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posted December 18, 2007 at 14:14 in Tennis Articles

Tennis Betting Action – Betting Against Roger Federer

by Nila Amerova

World No.1 Roger Federer, looking for his 13th major title, is the runaway favorite at (-200 with BetUS Sportsbook) to win the Australian Open. Winning three of last year’s four majors—Australian Open, Wimbledon and US Open—and reaching the final of the French Open, the 26 year-old Swiss star continues to raise the bar in men’s tennis, making him the man to beat again this year.

There is little to suggest that the Australian Open defending champion and the No.1 player, Roger Federer, four years running, will not be lifting the Australian Open crown on January 27th, 2008.

Seriously! Even the opening future odds for his main challengers indicate the unlikelihood of that happening! The closest competition tipped by the odds makers are—Djokovic (+550), Nadal (+650) and Nalbandian (+900). The rest of the playing field, starting with Andy Murray, is tipped at +2000 odds and beyond.

Heralded by his contemporaries, Bjorn Borg, Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi, amongst others, as the finest in history, Federer has no apparent weakness in his game. He serves brilliantly, returns spectacularly and scores from his backhand, forehand and any-which hand with remarkable precision.

But, can a man win all the time? Is Roger Federer that undefeatable?

If Federer is to stumble, as he did against Marat Safin at the Australian Open in 2005, then the question is who has the ability to trip him up as he guns his way towards his third consecutive and fourth Australian Open title?

Rafael Nadal, World No.2, opens at +650 behind No.3 Novak Djokovic, who only owing to his hard court prowess is just slightly favored at +550 in comparison. Rafael Nadal, who spectacularly defeated Roger Federer in two consecutive Roland Garros finals and, at the same time, suffered disappointing losses to Federer in two consecutive Wimbledon finals (2006-07) will have a lot of work to do before he can meet Roger Federer at the 2008 Australian Open. Owing to their top two rankings, their seeding will most likely put them at opposite ends of the draw, making a meeting between the two only likely in the final.

Nadal, who is not known for a his hard court game, would have to achieve something he has not been able to do thus far; that is become a threat to contend with on this surface. Going against the clay court King Rafa is also the fact that he has been suffering reoccurring knee and foot injuries. However, if Rafa is in top form, his spirit and passion for the game alone would make him a bet worth making. At the very least, he is a good bet to make a deep run.

If there were a threat to Federer’s Australian Open aspirations, it would most likely come from No.3 Novak Djokovic. The

Serbian enjoyed a breakout season in 2007: lifting five crowns, ending the season with an impressive 68/19 record and cracking the Top 10. Amongst his many accomplishments in 2007, perhaps his most notable was defeating Roger Federer in the final of the ATP Masters Series in Montreal. (Djokovic also reached the US Open final in 2007; lost to Roger Federer in straight sets 7-6(4) 7-6(2) 6-4.) Following his 2007 season, the buzz surrounding this youngster has reached a fever pitch. Pundits have him pegged for a Grand Slam title in 2008. Considering hard court is his best surface, the 2008 Australian Open and US Open are the most likely major titles he would seize. At +550, there is value in Djokovic.

David Nalbandian (+900) is the dark horse at the Australian Open. Nalbandian salvaged a lackluster 2007 season—notching back-to-back victories over Roger Federer at the ATP Masters Series in Madrid and Paris—and effectively established himself as a contender late in the year for the upcoming 2008 season. Should he fall into the same draw as Federer, he might give the typically calm Federer something to worry about.

World No.6 Andy Roddick is tipped +2000 and James Blake is tipped at +6500; with such long odds, it would seem there is no threat States-side at the 2008 Australian Open.

From Andy Murray and David Ferrer (both tipped at +2000) more surprises could come about. However, both would be a long shot bet for the title. While anything is possible, at best, I would expect either would be responsible for a significant upset or two.

In the end, if we are to go by the odds makers, then we are back to where we started. Federer will claim the Australian title on January 27, 2008!

However, never has a season nor a major been as anticipated. The talent in men’s tennis today, flirts with the possibility that a different outcome is possible. With the New Year, we may very well see a new champion. A tennis rarity over these last few years, largely dominated by Roger Federer and to a lesser extent by Rafael Nadal.

Federer might be winning everything except clay these days, but with online sports betting in the BetUS.com Sportsbook, betting on tennis has never been so exciting! Join the BetUS.com online sportsbook today and start using the latest tennis lines, odds and props to earn cold, hard cash!

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room

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