Posted on 10/30/2007 6:58:38 PM

Tennis Betting – Federer vs. Karlovic

By Nila Amerova

Paris, France – On Wednesday, October 31, 2007, the ATP Masters Series (AMS) in Paris will see the top seed Roger Federer embark on his campaign in Paris. First up for the World No.1 will be No.25 Croatian Ivo Karlovic, a player against whom Federer holds a perfect 4-0 record. BetUS Sportsbook tips Federer at -1400.

Tennis Line: Roger Federer -1400 Ivo Karlovic +650

Match Time: 06:00 A.M. EST

Tennis Prediction: Federer enters this match with a perfect 4-0 record against Karlovic. Their second round meeting in Paris marks their third meeting this season. In their previous two meetings, Federer only narrowly clinched the victory. In their first meeting at the AMS in Canada Federer inched past Karlovic with a 7-6(2), 7-6(3); and in their second meeting, in Basel last week, Federer squeaked by a whisker – with a 7-6(6), 7-6(5). Is there a case for Ivo Karlovic this time around? Will it be third time lucky for the 6’9” giant from Croatia, who asserted he would be as comfortable serving with a basketball as he is with a tennis ball?

To be sure, Karlovic and Federer’s matches have been tight contests and not the dominating performances typical of Federer against most opponents. Credit goes to Karlovic for keeping neck-and-neck with Federer throughout their matches, for that is an achievement many cannot boast of accomplishing.

At a whopping price tag of -1400, Federer is the better play, but, at the same time, there is a nagging sensation that a break has to be imminent for Karlovic. Whether it will happen this season or the next remains to be seen, but if it is to be in 2007, then this is the match for Karlovic to do it in. With Karlovic’s season and a qualifying spot in Shanghai literally on the line (Karlovic still has a mathematical chance of securing the eighth and final spot in Shanghai) Karlovic could be moved to accomplish what he has thus far failed to do in his career – notch a victory against Roger Federer.

When comparing the stake vested in this match for each player, Karlovic’s stake outweighs Federer’s in some respects. That is not to say that Federer has no interest in this match, but the threat of elimination and having his Shanghai hopes dashed could prove to be the right catalyst for Karlovic to successfully serve up an insurmountable match, making Karlovic a reasonable bet.

At +650 underdog odds, betting on Karlovic would not be outrageous. After all, why not when the payout is more than six times the wager? Should Karlovic orchestrate the upset, the payout would be well worth the risk.

Federer has already qualified for Shanghai and secured the year-end No.1 ranking for a fourth consecutive year. Moreover, Federer leads the tour with seven ATP titles – two of which are AMS shields: Hamburg and Cincinnati.

In the end, Federer is not in the habit of losing. His record for the season at 63/7 tells the story. Therefore, while risking an amount on Karlovic would be entirely worth it – covering ones bases in the event of the unlikely happening – the likely result will be that Federer will prevail.

Tennis Free Pick: Federer in straight sets

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Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room