Posted on 1/15/2008 10:36:24 AM

Tennis Betting – Betting on the Underdogs at the Australian Open

By Nila Amerova

Melbourne, Australia -- Popular opinion would have you believe top seeds rarely flounder in major Grand Slam events. Hence, lending the notion that in tennis, betting on the favourites is a sure thing. But if Day 1 of the Australian Open was any indication, namely the crushing loss Andy Murray, the ninth seed in Melbourne, suffered at the hands of Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, then arguably one thing is clear: anything can happen. Tennis betting is never a sure thing. In fact, there are always upsets and nigh upsets – none more so witnessed as in Jelena Jankovic’s first round match, which boasted an incredible 14 breaks of serve in the third set and narrowly finished in favour of the World No.3 Serbian Jankovic 2-6, 6-2, 12-10. As Jankovic crumpled to the ground in triumph, her relief in evading a disappointing first round exit could not have been more palpable.

The 2008 Australian Open boasts one of the deepest and most talented draws in its history, but the new Plexicushion surface unveiled this year, debuted to some mixed reviews. One has to consider the new surface will play a considerable factor in the next fortnight. In a sport, where surface is significant in handicapping, the slower and lower-bouncing balls of the new surface (which replaced last year’s faster and higher-bouncing Rebound Ace court) will lend some of the underdogs of the sport some added value, particularly those baseline grinders fit enough to keep up with some of the heavy-hitters of the game. This holds true more on the men’s side, as the results of Day 1 show some squeakers, surviving some narrow escapes to advance into the second round.

World No.2 Rafael Nadal, a huge favourite, got off to a slow start against Viktor Troicki, visibly struggling to dominate the match in the first two sets, before breaking away in the third to clinch the victory 7-6(3), 7-5, 6-1. The fourth seed Russian Nikolay Davydenko fared similarly, topping Michael Llodra in the first round with a close 7-5, 7-5, 6-3 victory. World No.12 Tommy Robredo was drawn out to a fifth set by No.85 Mischa Zverev, before sealing the victory 4-6, 2-6, 7-6(2), 6-4, 7-5.

Former Australian Open Champion Amelie Mauresmo, faltered in her opening match, forced to battle back from a set down, Mauresmo continued on to clinch an emphatic win in three sets 6-7(6), 6-0, 6-0. [19] Sybille Bammer also found herself a set down, before persevering against (Q) Tamarine Tanasugarn 6-7(6), 6-4, 6-2; while [17] Shahar Peer and [13] Tatiana Golovin stumbled mid-way through their matches, dropping the second sets before coming back for the victory in the third.

In most cases, the underdogs were able to keep-up with the favourites throughout most of the match, returning stroke-for-stroke, serve-for serve and shot-for-shot. The new surface played a factor, yielding some unusual bounces close to the sidelines and giving a little more kick to sliced shots. This caused players some trouble as they struggled to adjust to their game for the unpredictable. However, in the end, form and experience were huge advantages that swayed the balance in favour of most of the favourites in their long and grinding first round contests.

Although not all nigh upsets were averted. Veteran Carlos Moya, seeded 16th at the Australian Open, joined the list of first round casualties from the Top 20 players, when he was upset by No.68 Stefan Koubek of Austria in four sets 7-6(5),(2)6-7, 7-5, 6-4. Eighteenth seed Juan Ignacio Chela was also unceremoniously dispatched in four sets by No. 86 Guillermo Garcia-Lopez – a player he held a 2-0 record over on hard. On the women’s side, promising talent Julia Vakulenko, (seeded No.32) was ousted by Elena Vesnina of Russia 6-4, 1-6, 6-4. Meanwhile, Vera Zvonareva retired due to an ankle sprain in the second set of her opening match against Ai Sugiyama of Japan.

After one day of tennis at the first Grand Slam event of the 2008 season several surprising results came about, but more importantly serious questions were raised. The Australian Open’s facelift raises concern, namely, for the fate of the favourites. So, as Day 2 of the Australian Open dawns upon us, once again, keep in mind when betting on the individual matchups, the notion that anything can happen. I for one believe the courts of Melbourne Park will serve up from more upsets as the tournament continues.

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.