Posted on
10/16/2007 8:35:57 PM
Tennis AMS: Betting on Federer, Nadal and Djokovic
By Nila Amerova
Madrid, Spain – The big question in Madrid is who is going to win the ATP Masters Series (AMS) title this year. Is Federer going to win his second consecutive AMS title in Madrid? Is Nadal going to add a seventh title to his name and second hard court AMS title in 2007? Is Djokovic going to emerge and crush the aspirations of both Federer and Nadal? Or, could the unthinkable happen and an unlikely winner seizes the title from under all three?
The 2007 season has been a sensational year for the tours Top three players: No.1 Roger Federer, No.2 Rafael Nadal and newcomer No.3 Novak Djokovic. This year alone Federer and Nadal raised six crowns apiece, of which, they split the seasons four coveted Grand Slam titles and seized five of the seven AMS titles so far. Djokovic, who trails with five titles, snapped up the remaining two AMS titles, winning the AMS in Miami (d. Canas) and the AMS in Montreal (d. Federer).
Only two ATP Masters Series (Madrid and Paris) remain to be determined in the 2007 season. When Nadal holds three AMS titles, and Federer and Djokovic are tied at two AMS titles apiece, there is no question of the threesome being the favorites in Madrid.
In Federer’s quarter defending champion and World No.1 Roger Federer started his ATP Masters Cup campaign with a 7-6(2), 6-4 victory over Robby Ginepri. The three-time Grand Slam Champion in 2007 (Australian Open, Wimbledon and US Open), has reached the final of nine of his 12 events this year, including finishing as the runner-up in Roland Garros – the fourth and only Grand Slam title to have eluded him this year; in fact, it has eluded him during his entire career thus far.
His Madrid Masters’ title defense campaign off to a great start and with a 2007 record for the season that includes 9/12 finals, Federer is one of the strongest favorites at the ATP Masters Series in Madrid to reach the final.
Federer advances to move into the third round where he would next meet either No.50 Augustin Calleri or No.14 Guillermo Canas. Should Calleri beat Canas in the second round, he would do Federer a great service, as he would save Federer from having to face the only man to upset him in back-to-back tournaments this season (Canas defeated Federer at the ATP Masters Series in Indian Wells and ATP Masters Series in Miami).
Trailing 0-2 in 2007 and 1-3 in career head-to-heads against Canas must not sit well with the stoic Swiss. Not one to balk at a challenge, Federer would want a chance to avenge one of his losses. If Canas sets up a third round meeting, Federer would not be so accommodating this time as to lose. You can bet on Federer to make it to the quarterfinal in his section of the draw.
In the quarterfinal, David Ferrer looms as a possible challenge for Federer, but with a comfortable 7/0 record against Ferrer, Federer should sail into the semifinals without too much trouble.
In the semifinal, Federer could face 2006 runner-up Fernando Gonzalez. However, Gonzalez has not been in best form this year, making his quarter of the draw the more unpredictable and one from which an unlikely semifinalist could emerge - Ivo Karlovic or Davydenko are great contenders for the semifinal berth.
No matter who emerges out of Gonazlez’s quarter, if Federer is standing across from the net, a victory away from a final, betting on Federer in the semifinal would be the sure play.
In the top half of the draw, the question of who will book the final date cannot seriously be a mystery. Federer is not just the bet, but the only bet.
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Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.