Posted on 3/17/2008 4:38:03 PM

Tennis Picks - ATP Master Series Indian Wells Third Round Odds

By Nila Amerova

Indian Wells – At the close of second round action at the ATP Masters Series in Indian Wells over the weekend, the tournament received its first shocking upset when No.6 Andy Roddick was dismissed in straight sets 6-4, 6-4 by an unseeded Tommy Haas of Germany. Also out of the tournament in the second round was twelfth seed Fernando Gonzalez, falling in three sets to wild card Mario Ancic of Croatia.

The tournament enters the third round on Monday, March 17, 2008, so with lots of tennis betting action to choose from, here is a look at the odds currently available at BetUS.

Tennis Betting Line: Carlos Moya +3 EV +175 Over 22½ -125 James Blake -3 -140 -225 Under 22½ -115

Match Time: 05:30 PM Eastern Time, Monday, March 17, 2008

Tennis Prediction: The matchup of Carlos Moya and James Blake is a good one. Lifetime, Moya leads 6-5 but on hard, Blake leads 5-3; in 2007, Blake led 2-1 in head-to-heads – both victories were on hard for the American.

Moya is tipped at +175 underdog odds, but he is a veteran player who has the solid hard court game – in 2007, Moya reached the US Open quarterfinals and earlier in the year, he reached the R16 in Indian Wells. Moya’s best at this event came in 1999 when he reached the final, lost to Mark Philippoussis.

Blake is favoured on the money line at -225 and with home court edge, the American would be a good play. In 2006, Blake finished runner-up in Indian Wells (lost to Roger Federer in three sets). Last year, Blake was upset by Julien Benneteau in straight sets in the R32.

Both Moya and Blake have had a typically consistent and solid season thus far and I think their matchup is closer than the odds would indicate. Either player in this matchup has a good chance of advancing through to the R16. I expect their match to be a close contest and with the crowd pulling for Blake, he is the de facto better play.

Tennis Free Pick: Blake in three sets

Tennis Betting Line: Paul Henri Mathieu +2½ -115 +135 Over 23 -125 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga -2½ -125 -175 Under 23 -115

Match Time: 05:30 PM Eastern Time, Monday, March 17, 2008

Tennis Prediction: The all-French affair between Paul-Henri Mathieu and Jo-Wilfired Tsonga will be a dramatic and highly emotional contest and a stellar R32 matchup. As always is the case when compatriots’ face-off, the match takes on a completely new dimension as they try to best one another. No.14 Mathieu ranks just slightly higher than No.17 Tsonga, but the lower-ranked Frenchman is favoured on the money line, largely due to his performance at the Australian Open that saw him finish runner-up. However, since his Cinderella run in Melbourne, Tsonga contested one tournament in Marseille and fell in his opening match to Mario Ancic – begging the question whether Tsonga is capable of replicating that magical performance that saw him soar up the ranks.

Mathieu on the other hand has posted some consistent results this year, with a semifinal run in Marseille (his best performance of the season) and a quarterfinal run earlier in the year in Adelaide and two R16 appearances. It is interesting to note that the pair has never met at an ATP level event. Mathieu has the hard court game to rival Tsonga’s and as the No.2 French tennis player, he will hope to make a statement with a victory over Tsonga.

The Pacific Life Open is a prestigious event and the pressure will fall solely on Tsonga’s shoulders, as he is the player expected to advance from this matchup at this major tournament. In this his first real major test since the Australian Open, Tsonga has to prove he is not a one-hit wonder.

I expect this to be a close match and I like either player to advance. I must admit to being a fan of Tsonga’s, particularly after the Australian Open; however, I have a suspicion Mathieu may prove to be the victor in this match.

Tennis Free Pick: Mathieu in three sets

Tennis Betting Line: Donald Young +5 -130 +600 Over 20 -125 Rafael Nadal -5 -110 -1400 Under 20 -115

Match Time: 05:30 PM Eastern Time, Monday, March 17, 2008

Tennis Prediction: Defending champion Rafael Nadal should not have a problem winning this match. American Donald Young enters this tournament on a wild card, and will have plenty of supporters in the crowd spurring him on to victory; but I expect the occasion will prove too great for the untried American talent. An up-and-comer, this is not the last we shall see of Donald Young this season, but I expect this will be his last match of the tournament.

Tennis Free Pick: Nadal in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line: Marcos Baghdatis -2½ -110 -165 Over 22½ -125 Stanislas Wawrinka +2½ -130 +125 Under 22½ -115

Match Time: 07:00 PM Eastern Time, Monday, March 17, 2008

Tennis Prediction: The favoured Marcos Baghdatis is the better play on paper. He ranks higher at No.18 and is a solid player who typically posts deep runs in tournaments. However, Stanislas Wawrinka is a tough competitor, albeit a streaky one. If Wawrinka takes it to Baghdatis from the onset of the match, I expect he could overwhelm the favoured Cypriot.

Tennis Free Pick: Wawrinka in straight sets

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room