Posted on 8/15/2007 8:20:54 PM

Tennis Odds – The Long and Short at the ATP Masters Series in Cincinnati

By Nila Amerova

Cincinnati, Ohio – The ATP Masters Series in Cincinnati is shaping up to be a perplexing tournament. Top seed casualties continue to pile up, wrecking havoc with tennis picks, lines and odds. What is going on down there? Is it a full moon, or, is everyone just having a bad day? Could it be that there is a bug going around? More importantly, what is the tennis bettor supposed to do?

To the chagrin of tournament organizers, in their opening matches of the tournament fourth seed Novak Djokovic, last week’s Rogers Cup Champion, found himself easily sideswiped by Carlos Moya 6-4, 6-1; sixth seed Fernando Gonzalez faded out of the tournament with a 6-2, 7-6(7) loss to Juan Carlos Ferrero; and seventh seed Tommy Robredo was stunned by Jarkko Nieminen 6-4, 6-1.

If that was not enough of a hodgepodge for the tournament to be in, second seed Rafael Nadal and eighth seed Richard Gasquet retired from their respective matches due to injuries.

Of the top eight seeds in the tournament, only three remain standing. Well sort of, as only one of the three played an opening match. Third seed and defending champion Andy Roddick to the delight of organizers, crowds and tennis bettors marched through to the third round with a victory over Fernando Verdasco 7-6(3), 6-2.

The fate of top seed Roger Federer and fifth seed Nikolay Davydenko hangs in the balance. Their matches are scheduled for later today, so before the day is out there still may be more surprises to contend with. While the thought of Federer crashing out of the tournament is hardly an entertaining thought - the tournament organizers would have an heart attack in such an eventuality - if there were a candidate for another top seed fatality before the day is out, then Davydenko would be a fitting victim.

In the 9-16 seeding category, the seeds swept out of the tournament were: [11] Ivan Ljubicic, [12] Tommy Haas, [13] Mikhail Youzhny, [14] Andy Murray and [15] Guillermo Canas. Still alive in the tournament and through to the third round are: [9] James Blake, [10] Tomas Berdych and [16] David Ferrer.

In terms of betting on the ATP Masters Series in Cincinnati, the demise of the top seeds in the early stages will have a direct effect on the odds for matchups as the tournament progresses. Instead of typically shorter odds in the later stages of a tournament, the so-called pretenders advancing farther into the tournament will create matchups with longer odds. This is good news for tennis betting enthusiasts for, as the matchups open up, the lines loosen up and there is a good deal or two to be had out there when handicapping.

So who are the pretenders?

In the top half of the draw, No.34 Jurgen Melzer makes his first third round appearance since May at the ATP Masters Series in Hamburg (clay). Melzer’s best performances to date were at the start of the season in Sydney and Las Vegas, both hard court events. In Sydney, Melzer made a run all the way to the semifinal, but withdrew before playing the match against James Blake; in Las Vegas, he finished as the runner-up (lost to Lleyton Hewitt 4-6, 6-7(10)).

Qualifier Juan Martin Del Potro sits at No.78 in the ATP ranking. In the first round of the tournament, Del Potro tipped at +150 caused one of the first upsets of the tournament when he topped Guillermo Canas (-200). In the second round, he bested Phillip Kohlschreiber. Next up for Juan Martin Del Potro is Carlos Moya, who trounced Novak Djokovic in the second round. The opening line with BetUS.com Sportsbook had Moya as a +350 underdog and Djokovic a -600 favorite!

Wildcard No.65 Sam Querrey is another pretender, who secured his spot in the third round after overpowering Mikhail Youzhny 5-7, 6-3, 6-4. Querrey recently won a challenger event – the Vancouver Open.

Clay court specialists No. 25 Juan Monaco and No.32 Nicolas Almagro, who spend the bulk of the season in clay tournaments, are also through to the third round. Monaco received a free pass into the third round when No.2 Rafael Nadal retired; Almagro earned his place with a victory over [11] Ivan Ljubicic. (The opening line at BetUS.com Sportsbook had Almagro at +210 and Ljubicic at -325.)

The long and short of it is that unlike last week’s Roger Cup, where with the exception of Radek Stepanek three out of the four semifinalists were seeded in the top three (Federer, Nadal and Djokovic). Such a desireable result will not be reached at the ATP Masters Series in Cinncinati. While there are still seeded players in all four corners of the draw, it may very well happen that as the tournament progresses a situation may result where there will be more than one unlikely semifinalist. Just as Radek Stepanek was for the Rogers Cup, a pretender (or two) may be for the ATP Masters Series in Cincinnati. So the only real question is which of these pretenders should you bank on?

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Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.