Posted on 4/3/2008 3:22:40 PM

Tennis Betting Masters Series Semi-final Odds Nadal vs. Berdych

By Nila Amerova

Miami, Florida – At the close of the first round of quarterfinal matches in the bottom half of the draw, World No.2 Rafael Nadal and No.10 Tomas Berdych won their respective encounters to set up a blockbuster semi-final billing for Friday, April 4, 2008. Nadal advanced into the semi-final with a second consecutive win over No.9 James Blake, defeating the American 3-6, 6-3, 6-1.

Berdych made his way into his career first-ever semifinal in Miami with a 6-4, 6-4 victory over Igor Andreev. Prior to this appearance, he failed to advance past the third round.

On Friday, Nadal will vie to reach the Miami final for a second time in his career; in 2005, Nadal lost in the final to World No.1 Roger Federer in five sets. One victory separates the Spaniard from reaching the Miami final on Sunday, April 6, 2008. Can he overcome the stiff challenge posed by Berdych, who reaches the final four having not dropped a set during the tournament, losing only 11 games coming into the quarterfinal against Andreev?

Tennis Betting Line: Tomas Berdych +135 Rafael Nadal -175

Match Time: 02:00 PM Eastern Time, Friday April 3, 2008

Head-to-Head Analysis: No.2 Rafael Nadal and No.10 Tomas Berdych are tied 3-3 lifetime, with Nadal holding Berydch’s number in their last two meetings, both of which came in 2007. At the ATP Masters Series in Monte Carlo, en route to the title, Nadal defeated Berdych in the semifinal 6-0, 7-5; and at Wimbledon, en route to a runner-up finish, Nadal dismissed Berdych in three sets in the quarterfinal 7-6(1), 6-4, 6-2.

In 2007, Nadal and Berdych did not meet on hard court. The three hard court meetings between the pair were contested over a two-year span at three separate AMS events: Cincinnati (2005), Canada (2006) and Madrid (2006). All three were won by the Czech.

Tennis Prediction: If their head-to-head record were an indication, then Berdych clearly has the edge over Nadal on hard surfaces, making his underdog odds at +135 an attractive wager. Add to that his impressive run in Miami, having yet to drop a set, losing only 11 games before the quarterfinal against Andreev, and Berdych’s odds start to look even better.

However, the last time Berdych challenged Nadal on hard was over two years ago, and since then Nadal’s hard court game has seen noticeable improvements. Currently Nadal leads the ATP circuit in match-wins with 20 – all of which are hard court match-wins. In his previous five tournaments this year, Nadal finished runner-up once (Chennai) and reached the semi-finals twice (Australian Open and Indian Wells) and the quarterfinal once (Dubai).

In the quarterfinal yesterday, when it looked like Blake had Nadal’s number with a first set lead, Nadal showed tremendous heart and spirit to seize the second set, get back into the match, before demolishing Blake in the third and running away with the victory. If Nadal brings such a level of intensity to his semifinal, Berdych will have to come up with something special to halt the matadors advance. Before Miami, Berdych’s posted modest results in tournament play this year. He could be in the midst of a turn-around, but aside from his one title victory in 2007, the last time Berdych reached a final of a tournament was in September 2006 at Mumbai.

Nadal arrived in Miami without a title win for the season; the closest he came to a title win was in his opening event this year in Chennai. One victory separates him from a second shot at a hard court title in Miami. The stakes are high and Nadal has something to prove. I expect Nadal’s vested stake in this tournament to be the necessary catalyst for a great match-win in the semifinal over Berdych.

Tennis Free Picks: Nadal in straight sets

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.