Posted on 5/6/2008 3:08:27 PM

Tennis Betting - ATP Masters Series Rome Preview

By Nila Amerova

Rome, Italy – The Masters Series in Rome, running from May 5 to 11, 2008, has a little bit of everything, promising a dramatic week in online tennis betting for the online sports betting hamlet at BetUS Sportsbook. The draw is packed with some hard hitters, clay-court specialists, home patch favourites, as well as the King of Clay Rafael Nadal and the World No.1 Roger Federer – all this for the tournament means that in the early stages some exciting matchups will feature as quality players clash within the first three rounds. And what this means for handicappers anxious to make some profit betting on the ATP Masters Series in Rome is that the odds-on-favourites are unlikely to just sashay their way through the tournament, if not, find themselves missing a step or two, prematurely tripped up in their campaign.

The first threat looming large is found in top seed Roger Federer’s quarter. To be sure, Federer got no favours from the draw when he drew nemesis Guillermo Canas, who after having won his opening round match against wild card Gianluca Naso today, confirmed the second round billing with the World No.1 and two-time Rome finalist, Roger Federer. Federer reached his second final and first ATP Masters Series final of the season in Monaco a fortnight ago, but from the quality – or lack thereof – of the first few contenders in his section of the draw, there was no reason to justify questioning Federer’s progress through the early rounds in Monte Carlo. By drawing Canas potentially (now certainly) as an opening round challenger – a player who holds a 3-2 edge over the Swiss (including two back-to-back stunners last spring in Indian Wells and Miami) – Federer would appear to be in dire straits, and this even before getting his Rome campaign fully up-and-running.

Just looking at the money line offered on this matchup and it would appear even the bookies have taken in a whiff of the troubled air. Nestled tenderly on the favourite plane, Federer weighs in moderately (by his standards) at -700 on the money line against Canas, who sits at +400 underdog odds. I remember a time when Federer would have been far flung down the favourite plane, composed of a quartet of digits; nary a consideration he would not reach the final let alone face a serious challenge in his first match. But two semi-final (Australian Open and Indian Wells), one quarterfinal (Miami) and sprinkled in the mix one unfortunate first round exit (Dubai) – the results of his first four tournaments in 2008, including neither a title victory nor a final appearance – was enough for bookies to rein in the World No.1. Just a tad— bit—ish. Well more so than we have ever grown accustomed when betting on a matchup that features Federer! This becomes even more interesting, when, after winning the Estoril Open and finishing runner-up in Monte Carlo – results not to be scoffed at – one would think Federer would have found favour once again in the betting market, especially in early round tournament play. Apparently, not so much!

Now, should Federer survive his opening round contest against Canas, his course to a third consecutive final in Rome will not exactly be a model catwalk as his section is packed with potential stumbling blocks in the form of fifteenth seed Mathieu and fifth seed Ferrer before the semi-final. In the third round, Federer could come up against Munich semi-finalist Paul-Henri Mathieu – albeit a player he has beaten three-times, but who, like several other players on the circuit this year, may be given his day during the course of this tournament. Assuming Federer survives the Frenchman, the other player who could potentially have his number is Spaniard David Ferrer. Ferrer is coming off a runner-up finish in Barcelona on Sunday that saw him take the second set from Rafael Nadal in the final before bowing down to the King of Clay in the third, stepping aside as Nadal claimed his fourth consecutive title in Barcelona. Prior to Barcelona, Ferrer lifted the title in Valencia and reached the quarterfinal in Monte Carlo. He arrives in Rome in high-flying form with an 11-2 mark on clay for the year.

Ferrer is not in a terribly difficult section of the first quarter, with an imminent second round challenge coming from Radek Stepanek and nearby obstacles in Luis Horna and Jose Acasuso in the third round. It would appear, more likely than not, Ferrer – not suffering any untimely setback in form – will leap frog his way into the final eight. Which brings us back to the real question of the first quarter in Rome; that is, whether Federer will indeed be waiting.

Should they meet in the quarterfinal, it will be their first encounter in 2008, since Ferrer lost to Federer at the 2007 Tennis Masters Cup in Shanghai. While Ferrer trails 0-8 lifetime against Federer, his odds should be considerably better than ever before against Federer should they meet in the final eight, and this time, Ferrer may, as others this year have (namely his compatriot Nadal) find the magic formula to solve the Federer dilemma.

Therefore, as the tournament heads toward its inevitable final movement on Sunday, May 11, 2008, after the assembled cast have all played, as has been the case in the past two finals in Rome, will Federer have featured once again in the final curtain call or will he be trumped before the dust has settled in Rome. The bedrock of talent close at hand in the first quarter means Federer cannot completely look ahead to a showdown with Ferrer – nor for that matter, a premier position in the final movement of the Rome Masters, and neither should bettors; but while patience will be the order for the day, speculating a little bit on the tennis betting action never hurt anyone.

Federer might be winning everything except clay these days, but with online sports betting in the BetUS.com Sportsbook, betting on tennis has never been so exciting! Join the BetUS.com online sportsbook today and start using the latest tennis lines, odds and props to earn cold, hard cash!

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.