Posted on 5/9/2008 7:20:21 PM

Tennis Betting - Rome Masters Quarter Picks - Djokovic vs. Stepanek

By Nila Amerova

Rome, Italy – To say the ATP Masters Series in Rome yielded surprise sports betting results during the course of the week is an understatement. Almost from the start of the online betting tournament seismic shockwaves reverberated; the first of the tremors was felt when the tournament lost its reigning King and three-time defending champion Rafael Nadal in his campaign opener against Juan Carlos Ferrero. The shakeup not over yet , further tremors followed as more favourites were toppled, David Ferrer, Nikolay Davydenko, and David Nalbdandian to name a few. But perhaps none was more surprising to the online tennis betting community than the news World No.1 Roger Federer joined the humbled line-up of seeds exiting the tournament today, upset by an unseeded Radek Stepanek 7-6(4), 7-6(7) in the quarterfinal.

So now, tennis bettors are faced with tennis odds on semi-final matchups in Rome they did not initially expect, but the conundrum of the tennis betting market, with good handicapping, can prove to be a profitable turn of events, not an alarming one. I promise. To illustrate some of the standout tennis bets on offer at BetUS Sportsbook, let us look at the tennis matchup between Novak Djokovic and Radek Stepanek.

Now I know the buzz of a Federer-Djokovic semi-final clash would have generated more enthusiasm in the sports betting market than the one on offer, but the Stepanek-Djokovic clash will rekindle some of the best memories of the 2007 US Open, wherein they met in the second round and delivered a performance that became an instant classic.

Tennis Betting Line: Novak Djokovic vs. Radek Stepanek

Match Time: 07:00 AM Eastern Time Saturday, May 10 2008

Head-to-Head Analysis: The head-to-head record between Novak Djokovic and Radek Stepanek is a close one. In three meetings, Djokovic won two and lost one match; but his 2-1 lead could have easily swung in favour of the 29-year-old Czech, Stepanek. For in their last encounter, at the 2007 US Open, Stepanek nigh-upset the heavily favoured Djokovic, stretching him to the limit in an epic five-set marathon that was determined by a handful of points 6-7(4) 7-6(5) 5-7 7-5 7-6(2). In fact, all three contests were tight affairs. Djokovic took their first meeting in Zagreb (2006) 6-3, 6-4. In the same year, in Rotterdam, Stepanek eked out Djokovic 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(2). So with such a tight affair in the semi-final, the outcome is anything but certain.

Novak Djokovic: To be sure, few bettors would bet against the high-flying Serb, especially after this year saw him record a Grand Slam breakthrough, winning the Australian Open and lifting one Masters Series title – the Pacific Life Open. In Rome, Djokovic has had a relatively unperturbed run into the final eight, his last match ending in a free pass when Nicolas Almagro retired in the second set (down a set and a game).

Radek Stepanek: Stepanek proved he was not a run-of-the-mill challenger today when he ousted top seed Roger Federer. (Earlier in the tournament, Stepanek had dismissed fifth seed David Ferrer). So based on his tournament in Rome, credence should be given to the veteran player’s odds. Stepanek came close to upsetting the young rising star, Djokovic, at the US Open; he may very well go one-step further tomorrow and seal the deal this time around.

Betting Verdict: Stepanek navigated a tough course en route to the semi-final. Of his four matches, three went to three sets; but the wear and tear did not seem to factor in his big victory today – a straight set upset over Federer. He served well and played aggressive tennis, shortening the points by going to the net frequently. This strategy will work against Djokovic. The confidence of notching his first victory over Federer in six years, since beating him last in Gstaad in 2002 will spill over into the semi-final. So long as he does not overplay the points, he should not play himself out of the match. His strength against Djokovic is a versatile game, including excellent serve-and-volley play and net play.

Djokovic on the other hand, benefits from playing half a match in the quarterfinal; the added rest is welcome particularly as the tournament approaches the later stages. Moreover, receiving a bye in to the second round means Djokovic needed to play only three matches to reach the final four. Of the three, only one went to three sets. Aside from a few lapses of concentration against Andreev in the R16 that cost him a set, Djokovic has looked relatively soli; but given Stepanek’s form in this tournament, Djokovic will have to be on top of his game. His best strategy will be to move Stepanek around, forcing him behind the baseline as much as possible with deep groundstrokes. If he can serve well and mix play with some firm drop shots and net coverage, he should advance into the final.

Tennis Free Picks: Neither player particularly loves the dirt, but both have enjoyed their fair share of success on the red stuff. The betting trend, more likely than not, will bet on Djokovic. Indeed, when taking his overall 2008 season into consideration, his success in this tournament, irrespective of the surface, is hardly surprising and most will expect him to go one better. However, Stepanek raised his value when he upset Federer today and for long shot pushers this is good news. Risking a wager on him would not be outrageous.

So there you have it, a nice short break down for you of some of the exciting tennis betting options available at BetUS Sportsbook. Now that you are all read up, you are ready to start betting on tennis!

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.