posted March 26, 2008 at 15:17 in Tennis Free Picks

Miami, Florida – The big story for the women at the 2008 Sony Ericsson Open is World No.2 Ana Ivanovic, who arrives in Miami this week after winning her year’s first Tier I title on Sunday in Indian Wells as the de facto top seed in World No.1 Justine Henin’s absence from the event. Brimming with confidence after her important victory in Indian Wells – a victory that demonstrated her growing ability to handle expectations – the in-form Serbian, Ivanovic has put herself alongside Maria Sharapova (missing from the draw this week in Miami) as one of the leading contenders to challenge Justine Henin for the year-end World No.1 ranking. But pivotal to reaching the pinnacle of women’s tennis will be winning a Grand Slam title – something that eluded her in her two career Grand Slam final appearances – and notching victories against top players Justine Henin and the Williams sisters, a trio that was for different reasons notably absent in Indian Wells.

This year the 2008 Sony Ericsson Open draw boasts the finest in women’s tennis battling for their share – preferably the winner’s (lioness... if you will) share – of the $3.77 million prize pot. Four-time Miami titlist and defending champion Serena Williams, 2007 runner-up Justine Henin and Venus Williams are just a few of the WTA tour’s dominant women who have a legitimate stake in winning the Sony Ericsson Open.

Ivanovic was a first round casualty in Miami last year and as such, she has a lot of ground to make up. But after her dream week in the California desert, the Serbian superstar will hope winning the Pacific Life Open will serve as a good starting point for her Miami campaign. (Ivanovic defeated Svetlana Kuznetsova 6-4, 6-3 in the final.) Most importantly, with her career third Tier I title victory, Ivanovic has solidified an ingredient that has perhaps been wavering up to this point: the belief that she can win big matches on big occasions.

At the 2007 Roland Garros final – her first-ever Grand Slam final – Ivanovic‘s outing was a whitewash affair, with Henin schooling her 6-1, 6-2. Ivanovic arrived to her second Slam final – at the 2008 Australian Open – on the heels of a dubious semifinal victory over Daniela Hantuchova, which saw her choke for the first set and first two games of the second. But her squeaky shoes (embarrassing accident or evil genius?) and some late mercurial play saw her seize the victory in three sets 0-6, 6-3, 6-4. In the final, the fiery Russian Maria Sharapova proved to be too much for the sweet-tempered Serbian, edging past her 7-5, 6-3 to win the Australian Open; raising the question whether Ivanovic had the killer instinct required to win the games biggest and most coveted crowns.

Now, let me put this out there, gentle tennis betting fan: As the draw this week in Miami is slightly tougher than last week in Indian Wells with heavy weights Justine Henin and the Williamses competing – a triplet that combines for formidable and enviable championship credentials – the smiling Serbian Ivanovic will face even more pressure to live up to expectations. Yes, Ivanovic was lucky to have not faced neither of the trio in her triumphant run last week (well how could she when they were not even competing in Indian Wells). Nor did she get a second shot at Maria Sharapova after losing to her in the 2008 Australian Open final in Melbourne – courtesy of Russian Svetlana Kuznetsova handing her compatriot her first loss of the season in 19 matches in the semifinal.

Obviously, Ivanovic will be one of the short-odds-on favourites to make a deep run in Miami. But her path is riddled with early threats, namely a potential third round matchup against former World No.1 Lindsay Davenport, who continues on her comeback trail after giving birth less than a year ago and reached the quarterfinal at Indian Wells last week (retired from her match against Jelena Jankovic). Should Ivanovic survive this early test, in her section of the draw further possible threats are [13] seed Dinara Safina in the R16; [12] seed Nicole Vaidisova, [19] seed Vera Zvonareva or [7] seed Daniela Hantuchova in the quarterfinal (remember: squeaky shoes); and possibly [4] seed Jelena Jankovic, [5] seed Anna Chakvetadze or [10] seed Elena Dementieva in the semifinals. And that’s not even considering the possibility of an unlikely contender sending seismic shocks throughout the tournament with an upset or two.

So there you have it. The odds makers will favour Ivanovic through most of her early matchups, but with only one title in 2007 (even if a big one) and a slew of top tennis stars in attendance in Miami, Ivanovic is not a sure play for back-to-back title victories. “Why,” you ask? Simply put, she has not done it yet! The 20-year-old Ivanovic owns six career titles, none of which was won back-to-back. So if she does it in Miami, it would be a first! Although I would not begrudge her the victory, I am just putting it out there: As there are many top players that can string a perfect game to knock Ivanovic off her stride, she will not in my opinion enjoy a dream run in Miami. Really.

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room