Posted on 10/19/2007 9:48:09 PM

Tennis Betting: Madrid Masters Series Picks: Djokovic vs. Nalbandian

By Nila Amerova

Madrid, Spain – After draining all his energy against Britain’s Andy Murray in the third round yesterday, a strikingly subdued No. 2 Rafael Nadal stepped out onto centre court at the Pabellón de Cristal in the Mutua Madrileña Masters quarterfinal today.

Meeting Argentinean No. 25 David Nalbandian (tipped at +350 at BetUS Sportsbook), for the first time ever at an ATP event, the Spaniard Nadal (favored at -600), playing unlike his usual voracious self, was vanquished 6-1, 6-2 in one hour, 11 minutes. It was Nadal’s worst defeat in three years; the last time Nadal was held to a handful of games was in 2004, when he was ranked No. 50 in the world.

In the second quarterfinal match in the bottom half of the draw, Serbian No. 3 Novak Djokovic (favored at -300) secured his berth in the semifinal with a straight set victory 7-6(2), 6-2 over Croatian No. 49 Mario Ancic (tipped at +200).

The match got off to a slow start, both players staying on serve, neck-and-neck until the tiebreak, when Djokovic pulled ahead with the early break, and in spite of slightly injuring his ankle and limping visibly, he snatched the first set 7-2 in the tiebreak.

In the second set, Djokovic handled Ancic much quicker, breaking his serve twice to close out the match in one hour and 45 minutes.

The semifinal round in Madrid kicks off on Saturday, October 20, 2007 with Djokovic and Nalbandian taking centre court at 1:30 PM in Madrid. BetUS Sportsbook is taking action on the ATP Masters Series in Madrid, so check out the tennis odds and bet on this exciting semifinal match up.

Head-to-Head breakdown

The semifinal between Djokovic and Nalbandian marks their second meeting this season; their previous meeting was at the 2007 ATP Masters Series in Canada, where Djokovic defeated Nalbandian 6-2, 6-3 in the R16 and went on to win the title.

Djokovic comes into this match as the favorite, bringing a 68/14 record for the season, which includes 5 ATP titles. Djokovic started his indoor hard court swing with a title victory in Vienna, Austria, last week. In this event - his second indoor event of the fall season - by comparison Djokovic’s run has been anything but velvety.

Receiving a bye into the second round, in his first match Djokovic was briefly unsettled by Spaniard Fernando Verdasco when he seized the first set in the tiebreak, forcing Djokovic to battle back from behind 6-7(7), 6-3, 6-3 in two hours and 33 minutes. In the second round, Djokovic was once again dragged into a long match, when Spaniard Juan Carlos Ferrero nicked the second set, before Djokovic rebounded to close out the match 6-3, 2-6, 6-4 in two hours and 12 minutes.

Unseeded Nalbandian arrives into the semifinal having played four matches (one match more than third seed Djokovic), and of his four contests, two were three set matches (Arnaud Clement in the R64 and Tomas Berdych in the R32).

In terms of handicapping this match, it boils down to two key factors form and surface.

In terms of form, having spent numerous hours battling on court in their previous contests, both Djokovic and Nalbandian arrive into the final four with questions marks. While Nalbandian looked in fine form against Rafael Nadal, Djokovic was less sprightly against Mario Ancic, and even seemed to slightly twist his ankle at the end of the first set.

In terms of surface, Djokovic, who has arguably one of the more complete hard court games on the tour, has the slightest edge over Nalbandian. With two AMS shields on this surface (Miami and Montreal), Djokovic is chasing his third AMS shield. In AMS events, Djokovic holds 24-5 record in 2007. Further tipping the balance in Djokovic’s favor is a runner-up finish at the 2007 US Open.

Nalbandian has a solid hard court game and his strengths are his backhand and his ability to utilize incredible angles in his passing shots. Nalbandian can match Djokovic in shot making and placement, and should he utilize both, as he did against Nadal today, Nalbandian could run Djokovic off of his feet as he forces him to chase down every balls for the point. If Djokovic is indeed slightly injured, then Nalbandian’s uncanny ability to move a player could derail his bid for a third AMS shield this season. The key for Nalbandian will be to have Djokovic moving back and forth along that baseline, even pushing him beyond it.

Tennis is such a physical sport and one that requires so much focus; winning can be feat of mental strength alone. As well, running out of gas and the added burden of playing through injuries naturally can affect the outcome of matches. Nadal was a perfect example of that today.

How will Djokovic fare? Will he persevere and advance to set up a third final round showdown against Federer this season?

The semifinal match up between Djokovic and Nalbandian will come down to mental strength. Is Djokovic seasoned enough to emerge victorious in this battle of the wills? Certainly, he will be tested. More so, he will not have as easy a match against Nalbandian as he did in their previous encounter in Montreal. In fact, I expect this to be a much closer contest with Nalbandian besting Djokovic in straight sets.

Tennis Free Pick: Nalbandian in straight sets.

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Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.