Posted on 10/18/2007 7:36:12 PM

Tennis Betting: Djokovic vs. Ancic

By Nila Amerova

Madrid, Spain – In the first quarterfinal match up at the ATP Masters Series in Madrid, third seed Serbian Novak Djokovic prepares to take on the unseeded Croatian Mario Ancic. Djokovic, after dropping the second set, secured his berth in the quarterfinal with a shaky three set victory 6-3, 2-6, 6-4. No. 49 Ancic, who missed most of the 2007 season with mononucleosis and a shoulder injury, topped Paul-Henri Mathieu 6-4, 6-3, to arrive into only his second quarterfinal of the year. Ancic reached the quarterfinal in Stockholm last week.

BetUS Sportsbook has released odds on this stellar match up and it comes as no surprise that the World No. 3 Djokovic is favored by the odds makers on the money line at -300. Ancic, who started the season ranked No. 9, opens as the underdog at +200.

Tennis Betting Line: Mario Ancic +200 Novak Djokovic -300

Match Time: 05:00 A.M. EST

Tennis Prediction: Handicapping this match is slightly tricky for several reasons, namely because Ancic’s ranking and record for the season belie his true potential.

At the start of the year, Ancic, who ranked in the Top 10, was poised to deliver what would have been perhaps another remarkable season. In 2006, Ancic finished the year compiling a 55/18 record (24-11 on hard, 14-4 on clay, 9-1 on grass, and 8-2 on carpet), which included two ATP titles and three runner-up finishes.

After illness and injury combined to sideline Ancic for the majority of the 2007 season, Ancic returned to tournament play in August at the ATP Masters Series in Canada. Ancic’s rebound from mononucleosis took its toll on his strength and energy, and his comeback has been slow, but with consecutive quarterfinal appearances in the last two weeks, Ancic’s game would finally appear to be on the up.

Ancic’s third round victory over Paul-Henri Mathieu improved his record to 11/8 for the season and against Djokovic, Ancic is tied at 1 apiece in head-to-heads.

Djokovic arrives with a 67/14 record for the season and five ATP titles. Tipped as the -300 favorite, Djokovic is the more likely winner in this match up. To be sure, pundits expect him to win. Hence, his heftier price tag, on which, you would need to bet $300 to win a $100.

While Djokovic is without a doubt an exceptional hard court player, Ancic has the game to test Djokovic on his favorite surface. Moreover, with Ancic on a comeback trail, a victory over Djokovic – this season’s breakout player – would go a long way in solidifying his resurgence. This season, Ancic holds a 2-1 record over Top 10 players.

Considered the best player to come out of Croatia since Goran Ivanisevic, Ancic, as the +200 underdog, holds a lot of value. In fact, he holds more value than Djokovic.

This match up is ripe for an upset. Ancic is more openly emotional and temperamental, but should he maintain his focus, he can blow Djokovic out of this tournament and cause perhaps the biggest upset not only in this tournament, but in this season. Take the odds maker’s bait and bet on Ancic to serve up an upset in Madrid; the opportunity is too good to miss for finding a money line in which Ancic will be as disadvantaged cannot last much longer.

Tennis Free Pick: Ancic in three sets.

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Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room