posted November 1, 2007 at 23:38 in Tennis Betting Trends

Paris, France – Spaniard Tommy Robredo (a +115 underdog) defeated Shanghai rival Guillermo Canas (favored at -155 with BetUS Sportsbook) in their third round clash today to move into the eighth qualifying place for the Shanghai Masters Cup running from November 11-18, 2007. Next up for Robredo, who gained 25 points today for a total of 353 points, is Marcos Baghdatis, who sits on the outside of qualifying, in eighteenth place with 300 points, and a mathematical chance of qualifying for the eight-man Masters Cup year-end showdown. Robredo once again is disadvantaged on the line at +135. So, should the tennis bettor bank on the underdog this time around or will Baghdatis impede Robredo’s bid for a berth in Shanghai in their quarterfinal set for Friday, November 2, 2007?

Since the start of the BNP Paribas Masters, Nila Amerova owns a 19/4 record in choice tennis picks. Check out the head-to-head breakdown below, and start making money betting on tennis with BetUS – your one stop shop for all your tennis betting thrills.

Tennis Line: Tommy Robredo +135 Marcos Baghdatis -175

Match Time: 06:00 AM EST

Tennis Prediction: Robredo moves into eighth place, but with Tommy Haas still to play in the third round today, Robredo could very well be overtaken before the day is out. A victory in the next round for Robredo is needed to firm up his tenuous hold on the qualifying berth for Shanghai. (Should Haas also lose in the R16, Robredo’s bid would benefit from the added boost of having one less rival, and a close one at that, closing in on him.)

In the quarterfinal, set for Friday in Paris, Robredo meets Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis for the first time since the Australian Open in 2005. Robredo trails 0-1 in lifetime records against Baghdatis, lending him a slight disadvantage coming into this match.

Robredo is further disadvantaged by the odds makers in this match up at +135. Nevertheless, there is value in betting on Robredo.

Robredo brings a 49/25 record into this match and two ATP titles; winning his most recent crown in Metz – an indoor hard court event. Although Robredo followed up his title victory with back-to-back, first round exits in his subsequent events, in this his third event since winning the Open de Mosele title, Robredo is enjoying a bit of a winning streak. This is the last tournament of the season, and in order to snag one of the two remaining berths for Shanghai, Robredo has to continue his winning ways. The eighth place is within his reach.

In contrast, Baghdatis is on the outside of qualifying, trailing Robredo by 53 points. For Baghdatis to overtake Robredo he would need to win both their quarterfinal meeting and the subsequent semifinal in order to gain enough points to move into the seventh or eighth place for Shanghai. Indeed, Baghdatis faces a tougher challenge.

However, in Paris, Baghdatis enjoys home court-like advantage, as he spends considerable time training in France. A crowd favorite, Baghdatis will have no shortage of supporters and with the crowd behind him, Baghdatis may just brave the challenge and gain ground on his Shanghai rivals.

At -175, Baghdatis holds value in this match as well. Baghdatis arrives with 47/21 record for the season and one ATP tile.

In the end, the balance tips in favor of Robredo. As the current eighth place Shanghai qualifier, Robredo needs only to win in the quarterfinal to receive 45 points and overtake Fernando Gonzalez who sits in seventh place with 381 points. Presented with such a stimulus, Robredo cannot allow himself to be robbed of such an opportunity.

Tennis Free Pick: Robredo in three sets

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Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.