posted January 23, 2008 at 13:19 in Tennis Betting Trends

Melbourne, Australia – An injury-free Rafael Nadal (pre-tournament short odds favourite at +650 to win the Australian Open title), arrives into his first-ever Grand Slam semifinal on hard, and in what is shaping up to be his best opportunity to win a major title away from the clay courts of Roland Garros, the overwhelming question is: Can he do it. Can Rafael Nadal win a Grand Slam title other than the French Open—a Grand Slam event he has dominated since 2005.

If Nadal advances into the final on Sunday, January 27, 2008, it would be his first-ever chance to vie for the Australian Open title; and should he win, he would accomplish a feat last achieved by Andre Agassi, who was the last player to hold both titles— the French Open (1999) and Australian Open (2000)—at the same time.

It is not as if Rafael Nadal has never won a hard court event; indeed, he has enjoyed several victorious runs on hard—the ATP Masters Series in Indian Wells (2007) and Canada (2006), amongst several others. But at the Grand Slam level, outside of winning the French Open and two consecutive runner-up finishes at Wimbledon (2006-07), in the two hard court Grand Slams of the season— Australian Open and US Open – Nadal, never advanced past the quarterfinal stage.

Of all the surfaces, Nadal has had the toughest time adjusting to the pace on hard. Grass and clay – the more slippery of the surfaces—suit Nadal’s style of play better and in turn, he enjoys a lot more success on both.

On clay, Nadal enjoyed a two-year unbeaten streak, setting an Open Era record 81-match winning streak of any surface (lost to Roger Federer in the final of AMS Hamburg). Prior to that, his last loss on clay came on April 8, 2005, when he lost to Russian Igor Andreev in the quarterfinal of Valencia.

On grass, Rafael Nadal reached two back-to-back Wimbledon finals, (l. to Roger Federer in both the 2006 and 2007 final). Even though Nadal lost both times, his run at last years’ Wimbledon was perhaps his best performance outside of clay. (Nadal drew Federer into a sensational fifth set, almost orchestrating the nigh upset; but Federer went on to seize his historic fifth consecutive Wimbledon title.) While Nadal failed to end Federer’s dominance on grass, his performance succeeded in quelling any misgivings of being a one-dimensional player.

In 2007, Nadal compiled a 31-1 record on clay, 31-12 record on hard and an 8-2 record on grass, capturing six titles in nine final appearances, including his third straight Roland Garros crown, three AMS shields (Indian Wells, Monte Carlo and Rome) Barcelona and Stuttgart.

Next up for Nadal is France’s Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, who has enjoyed nothing short of a magical run at his second outing in Melbourne. In 2007, Tsonga crashed out of the tournament in the first round, losing to Andy Roddick in a four sets match, which featured the longest tiebreak in the history of the tournament—Tsonga won the first set in a 20-18 tiebreak.

BetUS Sportsbook Australian Open Odds: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga +300 Rafael Nadal -500

For Tsonga this is his first-ever semifinal of any Grand Slam event. It goes without saying, but the magnitude of the occasion is huge for the young Frenchman. On his Cinderella run at the Australian Open, Tsonga topped some tough competitors to earn his place in the final four; but the surprise semifinalist, Tsonga should meet his toughest match in Nadal.

Both Nadal and Tsonga arrive in their first-ever semifinal in Melbourne Park; but while they have in common a debut at the Australian Open semifinal, therein ends the similarity. One has to consider Nadal holds most of the advantages in this matchup.

Nadal is without a doubt one of the best players on the tour, and second only to the maestro Roger Federer. Ranked No.2 in the World for 131 straight weeks, the contention has always been that it was only a matter of time before Nadal would win a Grand Slam title other than the French Open. Therefore, is this Nadal’s moment of truth?

Nadal enters the semifinal without the customary energy-sapping five-set marathon contests of his previous Grand Slam outings. Indeed, Nadal arrives without having dropped a set—a huge feat for the powerhouse lefty, lending his odds to advance into the final on Sunday serious weight. Further recommending his odds is a perfect 5-0 record in Grand Slam semifinals (2005-07 Roland Garros, 2006-07 Wimbledon).

So, the question begging for an answer is whether we will see the last of Rafael Nadal at the Australian Open tomorrow or is the best yet to come.

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.