posted January 12, 2007 at 17:52 in Tennis Articles

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2007 - ODDS OF BETTING AGAINST ROGER FEDERER

World No.1, Roger Federer, looking for his 10th major title, is the runaway favorite (-275) to win the Australian Open. Winning three of last year’s four majors and reaching the final of the French Open, the 25 year-old Swiss star continues to raise the bar in men’s tennis, making him the man to beat again this year.

There is little to suggest that the No.1 player three years running will not be lifting the Australian Open trophy on January 28th. Seriously! Even the opening tennis odds for his main challengers indicate the unlikelihood of that happening! Heralded by his contemporaries Andre Agassi and Jonas Bjorkman, amongst others, as the finest in history, Federer has no apparent weakness in his game. He serves brilliantly, returns spectacularly and scores from his backhand, forehand and any which hand with remarkable precision. But, can a man win all the time? Is Roger Federer that undefeatable?

 

If Federer is to stumble, as he did against Marat Safin (+2000) in the surprise five-set upset two years ago at the Australian Open, then the question is, who has the ability to trip him up as he guns his way towards his third Australian Open title?

Rafael Nadal, world No.2, opens at (+650) as the next second tipped favorite to win the Australian Open and is, most likely, one of the few that could give Federer a good shake. But Nadal, who defeated Federer in last year’s spectacular Roland Garros final 1-6, 6-1, 6-4, 7-6, has a lot of work to do before he can meet Roger Federer in the Australian Open. Battling injuries, the clay court king will have to first tackle American Robert Kendrick, who raced into a two-set lead over the Spaniard at Wimbledon last year before Nadal battled back to win. Should he dispatch his other challengers, Rafa could run into Andy Murray (+2500), the only other player to defeat Federer last year, in the fourth round of the Australian. Clearly, it will be no mean task for Nadal, but, if he is in top form, he is the (other) man to bet on!

 

World No.6 Andy Roddick (+1000) opens as the third tipped favorite at the Australian Open. Looking for his illusive second major title, power-server Andy Roddick, now coached by Jimmy Connors, feels his game has gotten more aggressive. But if last years US Open Finals debacle is any indication, then he has a long way to go before he can prove that he is the likely contender for the Australian Open title. I wouldn’t bet on him. Moreover Roddick could face Marat Safin in the third round, and, if the Russian is in the mood, he can match Andy serve-for-serve, stroke-for-stroke and crush his title aspirations yet again. What are Marat’s chances? Hard to say for the moody Russian! Tipped at (+2000) to win the title, he can go deep into the tournament, but remains too inconsistent a player to be the sure bet!

If there is any challenge, States-side, then it could come from No.5 James Blake (+2000). A crowd favorite, James Blake has been playing some of his best tennis ever. In an interesting twist of fate, he is scheduled to face-off in the first round of the Australian Open against none other than his Sydney’s Final challenger, Carlos Moya, who he prepares to face this Saturday. Undoubtedly, an unusual situation for both players, but Blake, who holds a 5-3 advantage over No.44 Moya, should be able to waltz through the Sydney’s Final and the first round of the Australian Open without breaking a sweat. Look for James Blake to go deep in this tournament.

From the low-ranked contenders, last year’s surprise finalist Marco Baghdatis (+3500) could happen on the mighty Federer in the quarterfinals. If this happens, then be prepared for a spectacular re-match and, dare I say it, quite possibly an upset? Should that happen, then the court opens up for anyone and the Australian Open title could go any which way!

If we are to go by the oddsmakers, then we are back to where we started. Federer will claim the Australian title on January 28th! But, with all the talent in men’s tennis today, surely a different outcome is possible. I think so. In fact, in a tennis rarity Nadal leads Federer 6-3 on their head-to-head meetings over the last three seasons. Should it come to a deciding match between these two, I put my bet on Nadal!

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Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributer to the BetUS.com Locker Room.