Posted on 1/22/2008 6:55:57 PM

Australian Open Betting – Sharapova and Jankovic

By Nila Amerova

Can Maria Sharapova shriek her way into the Australian Open final for a second consecutive year? If so, will she fare better than she did in last year’s semifinal, when a single-minded dangerous floater, Serena Williams, crushed her 6-1, 6-2; indeed, never letting Sharapova sink her teeth into the match.

From the start of the 2008 Australian Open, Sharapova arrived with the air of an avenging warrior angel, bent on destroying any challenge en route to the coveted Grand Slam title in Melbourne.

In her opening match, Sharapova cruised past Jelena Tosic Kostancic of Croatia 6-4, 6-3; in her second round meeting against former World No.1 Lindsay Davenport, Sharapova spared no sentiment, quashing Davenport 6-1, 6-3; in the third round, she topped fellow compatriot Elena Vesnina 6-3, 6-0 and in the R16, she annihilated another compatriot, Elena Dementieva, 6-2, 6-0. But, perhaps her best match to date was the supreme domination over reigning World No.1 Justine Henin 6-4, 6-0.

In 2007, Sharapova struggled throughout most of the season, and aside from reaching the Australian Open final early in the year, Sharapova’s Grand Slam performance in 2007 went on a steady decline, hitting an all-time low at the 2007 US Open, when she lost to up-and-coming Polish teenager Agnieska Radwanska in the R32 6-4, 1-6, 6-2.

After losing at the US Open, Sharapova competed in only one other tournament—her home event in Moscow, where she lost in the first round to Viktoria Azarenka of Belarus. Taking some time off to heel her injuries and re-group, Sharapova returned to compete in the year-end showdown – the Tour Championships.

Amidst speculations and doubts about her form and fitness, Sharapova turned out an impressive performance that saw her reach the Championship finals, where she lost to Justine Henin in a thrilling three-set marathon 5-7, 7-5, 6-3. While she lost the match, she won acclaim for her performance; and it was this reinvented Maria Sharapova, who made her debut at the 2008 Australian Open last week.

The bookies short odds favourite at +450 to win the Australian Open, second only to Justine Henin priced at +140, put on show a concentrated performance against Justine Henin in yesterday’s quarterfinal match. She served superbly, moved exceptionally well and played both aggressive and defensive tennis – her game was all-around stunning to behold. Henin, played equally well, but nothing the diminutive Belgian threw Sharapova’s way, seemed to work as Sharpova had an answer for everything. If Sharapova’s on-court destruction of her nemesis, Henin (a player she trailed 2-6 at the start of the quarterfinal round), is a prelude to her semifinal match, what are Jelena Jankovic’s chances?

Jelena Jankovic, priced at +1000 to win the Australian Open outright, was largely held by popular opinion and pundits alike, as the dark horse of the tournament. This sentiment, fuelled by her upset of defending champion Serena Williams earlier in that day, would appear to have not only gained momentum but credence as well.

While not taking away from her momentous victory over Serena Williams to arrive in her first-ever Australian Open semifinal, it is on the whole agreed that a flat Serena Williams stepped on court in the quarterfinals yesterday, only to deliver a sub-par performance by her standards.

Jankovic, in her run to the semifinal, struggled to win matches that should have been relative easy victories; in fact, Jelena faced nigh-elimination in the first round when she was pushed to a third set by Tamira Paszek and just scrapped by narrowly with a 12-10 victory to keep her hope alive. In the third round, against Virginie Razzano, she would lead by a set and 4-2 in the second, before letting the lead slip through her fingers, only to be forced to clinch the victory in the third.

In the first week of the tournament, Jankovic was hardly sharp— her game was patchy and her wins scratchy. Jankovic’s upset over Williams’ notwithstanding, if she hopes to defeat Sharapova, she cannot afford to replicate the performances of her first week in Melbourne.

The marked difference between the two upsets in the top-half of the women’s draw is that it was a Sharapova, reminiscent of her two victorious Grand Slam title runs, who defeated a valiant fighter in Justine Henin; whereas, Jankovic, who played well, benefited a great deal from Williams’ lacklustre performance – one that was not fitting of a defending champion.

So what does this mean for the marquee semifinal matchup in the top-half of the women’s draw?

Tennis Betting Line: Maria Sharapova -450 Jelena Jankovic +275

In my opinion, I would wager that even if an improved Jankovic appears on court in tomorrow’s semifinal match, Sharapova would still be hands down the better play. From the start of the tournament, Sharapova has given nothing but a concerted performance, leaving no doubt about what her goal was: to win the Australian Open. On that note, thus far, Jankovic has been found wanting.

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Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.