posted October 5, 2007 at 17:42 in Tennis Free Picks

Tokyo, Japan – The AIG Japan Open Semifinals are almost upon us. Only one victory away from a final matchup, let us take a look at the final four and the tennis odds that are in full swing at BetUS Sportsbook.

Friday, October 5, 2007

Singles - Quarterfinals

[1] D Ferrer (ESP) d [10] F Lopez (ESP) 6-4, 6-4

[7] I Karlovic (CRO) d [4] L Hewitt (AUS) 7-6(5,) 76(6)

Tennis Line: David Ferrer -180 Ivo Karlovic +140

Match Time: 02:30 AM EST

Tennis Prediction: Top seed David Ferrer comfortably defeated Spanish compatriot [10] Feliciano Lopez 6-4, 6-4 in 80 minutes to book his berth in the semifinal. This semifinal marks Ferrer’s fifth semifinal appearance in 2007.

[7] Ivo Karlovic secured his spot opposite Ferrer in the semifinal when he edged past [4] Lleyton Hewitt 7-6(5,) 76(6). En route to the semifinal, Karlovic become only the fourth player to hit a 1,000 aces in a season – a feat previously accomplished by Pete Sampras (1993), Goran Ivanisevic (1994 and 1996-98) and Andy Roddick (2004). Karlovic hit 25 aces – for a total of 73 aces this week.

The AIG Japan Open Semifinal between Ferrer and Karlovic, set to kick off on Saturday, October 6, 2007, marks their first-ever career meeting. Both Ferrer and Karlovic are enjoying a career-best season.

Ferrer brings into this match a 53/19 record for the season, which includes two ATP titles - Auckland (hard) and Bastaad (clay). Karlovic brings a 33/17 record for the season, which includes his maiden title in Houston (clay) and his second career title in Nottingham (grass).

Favored at -180, the World No. 8 Ferrer is a good play. Ferrer is hoping to qualify for the year-end Shanghai Masters Cup where only the top 8 players on the ATP tour are invited. With only 37 days before the ATP Tennis Masters Cup in Shanghai kicks off, the ATP point’s race is on. Ferrer who currently sits in sixth place to qualify, would almost assuredly earn his invitation to Shanghai should he win the AIG Japan Open title.

Karlovic disadvantaged at + 140 odds is an underdog with a lot of value. After all, Karlovic, entering the semifinal with a 1019 aces already under his belt, could simply try to ace his way into the final round. At 6’10” tall, Karlovic’s booming serve makes him a difficult opponent to play. Against Top 10 players, Karlovic’s holds a 2/3 record (both victories came against James Blake).

Ferrer has been the World No.8 for four weeks now, but to dismiss him Karlovic will have to do more than just ace his way. Betting on Karlovic is not an outrageous wager, but, in my opinion, the balance tips in favor of Ferrer. Ferrer is one of the most agile players, not averse to running balls down, his all court coverage and quickness could prove challenging for Karlovic. Further recommending Ferrer is a return game that could diminish the effectiveness of Karlovic’s serve.

Tennis Free Pick: Ferrer in three sets.

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Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.