Posted on 2/1/2008 12:26:50 PM

NFL Betting Superbowl XLII Props – Moss vs. Plaxico

By Tim Furious

Well, somebody had to do it. Plaxico Burress, the enigmatic receiver for the surprising NY Giants, opened up his fat yapper (which he never does) to predict that the Giants will not only beat the Patriots, they’ll hold them defensively to a mere seventeen points. Let’s forget the fact that New England averages 36.8 points per game, and that the Giants give up 21.9 points defensively. Let’s also overlook the fact that Plaxico doesn’t even play defense. Instead, let’s focus on one of my favorite props in our NFL sportsbook: the battle between Moss and Plax.

Randy Moss was the fourth best receiver in the league with 1,493 yards on 15.2 yards per catch. His outstanding season was capped by achieving 23 touchdowns, eclipsing Jerry Rice as the all-time receiving touchdown king. Moss also had zero fumbles on 98 receptions. It goes without saying that the once-problematic, locker room cancer has found a safe home in Foxboro.

In our props section, we have an O/U on Moss catching 5.5 passes from Uncle Tom Brady. You might gaffe at that total, especially considering that Moss has 2 catches for 32 yards in two playoff games this season. And those were against favorable matchups. The Giants will most likely toss first-year starter Corey Webster at Moss. Webster has two picks in three playoff games, and has amassed 9 tackles at the corner position. He gives up only (and I say “only” very sparingly) four-inches to Moss, and has been amazing in coverage. But his vertical is no match for Moss, so he will need help from hi safeties in this match-up.

Moss undoubtedly has the ability to take over Superbowl XLII and reward his betting backers, but proving himself as a hot playoff commodity is a requirement he hasn’t met yet. In fact, he’s looked virtually shell-shocked as if the thought, “golly! I’m in the playoffs?!” is still streaming through his mind. Randy is an undeniable talent, but the double coverage may make it difficult for him to reach six catches, so take the under. He can be effective in games with only a few catches, especially considering his yards-per-catch average, but the Patriots have no doubt been game planning about using him more effectively against the Giants secondary. I like the UNDER in this prop bet, but the OVER isn’t a stretch.

Plaxico is another story all together. At 6-foot-5, and full health, he was absolutely unstoppable against the Packers. He registered 11 catches and 151 yards against Al Harris, who is supposedly one of the better secondary players in the league. That in itself is solid proof that his ankle is no longer bothering him and that he can blow the doors wide open in the receptions department. Plax had only 70 catches on the season for 1,025 yards and 12 scores this season.

The Patriots play left-and-right in the secondary, meaning that Hobbs and Samuel will stick to their side of the field no matter where Plax goes. He had four catches in the Week 17 match-up, but we have him in at 5 receptions OVER/UNDER in our props. Plax, healthy, is insanely dangerous. Look for a far more confident Eli Manning to keep his eye on Plax as his crisp route running, aggressiveness off of scrimmage, and his distinct height advantage make him a difficult coverage assignment for the Pats. Plax should clear the O/U with little effort. He is their most effective offensive weapon by far.

Plaxico will be used extensively and often in the Giants gameplan (unless Tom Coughlin has conformed to Scientology and gone in to Tom Cruise control crazy), so the 78.5 yards expected of him will be no problem. The Patriots will try to take him out of the equation, but Plaxico’s height will be a distinct advantage. You’d be an idiot to think that the Giants haven’t spent the last two week practicing jump-ball passes to the gifted Burress.

The same can not be said for Moss, however. The 90.5 yards expected from him in our props department is slightly ludicrous, especially considering how much double coverage he will be seeing. Remember that the Patriots do not rely on Moss to be productive. They rely on him to be an unforgettable decoy. Don’t throw your hard earned betting dollars away by taking this prop in the OVER.

On top of that, Plaxico has those ill-advised predictions to live up to. He is a star, used to the pressure of success, so don’t expect him to buckle under the pressure. These are two receivers coming in to their own, and while Moss’s place in football history is entrenched, Plax still has yet to firmly put a chokehold on his. Bet on Plaxico to perform beyond expectation now that he is at full health and playing with a confident Eli.

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