Posted on
4/8/2008 3:53:16 PM
Sports Book Golf Betting Masters Odds
By Charles Jay
I'm sure it is arguable that the British Open may, from year-to-year, have the weakest field of the four majors, simply because there are a lot of guys who don't want to play it. But I would submit that the Masters is the least competitive of the four majors in one respect - there are probably less players with a real chance to win than any of the others.
One of the reasons is because the mandatory invite list brings players who naturally don't have a chance, like the U.S. Public Links champ, for example, but more to the point, it's the course itself. The Masters is the only major that is played on the same course every year, and it goes without saying that the more experience a player has over it, the better chance there is going to be to negotiate it. Only eleven times in the 71 years of the competition has someone hit the winner's circle in his third try or less.
Also, the dimensions of the course virtually eliminate a lot of players. Because of the general lack of rough (yes, they have included some, but not a lot - Bobby Jones, the founder of the tournament, didn't believe in it), and the length of the course, distance off the tee is ultimately rewarded more than anything. So you have to be a reasonably long hitter.
That having been said, let's take a look at some props for this year's tournament, as they appear at BetUS Sportsbook. And we might as well get one out of the way from the outset, because this exercise of picking a possible winner isn't even worthwhile if we're going with Tiger Woods, know what I mean?
MASTERS SPECIAL
The Field -150
Tiger Woods +110
We proceed on the basis that we like the "Field" (everybody else). If you're looking for a little statistical backup, Woods has been in 13 Masters, and has four wins (1997, 2001, 2002, 2005). That's a 30.8% winning percentage. And inclusive of the first year he won the tournament, he's won 36% of the years he's played. That would make him about +175 or so. Of course, that doesn't take into account that he is dominating things once again......
WILL THERE BE A HOLE-IN-ONE IN THE 2008 MASTERS?
No -170
Yes +130
Okay, how about some math here? In the 71 years the Masters has been played (they didn't do it in the war years of 1943, 1944 and 1945) there have been 14 years in which a hole-in-one has been made. Based on those numbers, it would be about a 4-1 shot. Of course, it must be mentioned that there has been a hole-in-one in four of the last 16 years, and two of the last four. Still, if we operate on the assumption that holes-in-one are a product of very good fortune more than anything else, we have to see value in the NO here.
WHICH HOLE WILL HAVE THE FIRST HOLE-IN-ONE?
4th Hole +1800
6th Hole +750
12th Hole +750
16th Hole +300
If you're going to insist on playing this prop, you'll want to lean toward the 16th Hole, at +300. Of the 18 holes-in-one, 10 of them (or 56%) have happened at the 16th, including holes-in-one from consecutive groups in 2004, when Padraig Harrington and Kirk Triplett gave the fans a thrill by turning the trick minutes apart.
WINNING 72-HOLE SCORE
Under 283 -125
Over 283 +105
The last ten winning scores at Augusta have averaged just a slither above 280, and that includes 289's by Vijay Singh in 2000 and Zach Johnson last year. So I think I'll lean to the "under" in this prop.
HOW ABOUT THE PAR 3?
On Wednesday, tournament participants and other invited guests will take part in the Par 3 competition, held over a nine-hole, par 27 course. The record is 20 strokes.
When I look at the Par 3, I'm usually looking for three things in a guy:
1) An exceptional short game
2) Someone who takes it seriously
3) Someone with a track record
Mark O'Meara won it last year and is 60-1 this year. But there has been only one back-to-back outright winner, and that is Sandy Lyle, who emerged triumphant in 1997 and 1998. Actually, there has been another back-to-back winner, sort of. And that's my selection here. PADRAIG HARRINGTON tied with David Toms for the title in 2003, shooting a 21, just a stroke off the record, and then came back the next year and won in a playoff. He currently ranks first on the PGA Tour with a 26.81 putts-per-round average. Harrington goes off at 30-1 in the Par 3, which brings with it some value.
SO WHO'S GOING TO WIN, OR PLAY WELL?
Here are the BetUS golf odds in winning the Masters, WITHOUT Tiger (it's just a partial list of notables):
Phil Mickelson +500
Vijay Singh +1200
Ernie Els +1500
Retief Goosen +1800
Geoff Ogilvy +1500
Sergio Garcia +3500
Jim Furyk +2000
Adam Scott +1800
Padraig Harrington +1500
Charles Howell +10000
Justin Rose +2000
Zach Johnson +3500
David Toms +8000
Jose-Maria Olazabal +7000
Fred Couples +5000
Miguel Angel Jimenez +12500
Ben Curtis +25000
In terms of a long shot, I'm going to offer up FRED COUPLES.
Fred Couples, who won the 1992 championship, is about as experienced over this course as anybody, having played 92 rounds at Augusta. And he's been one of the tournament's most consistent performers, making the cut all 23 times he has played. That's a Masters record. "I think the course brings something out in me even when I'm not playing well," he says.
Ten times Couples has been in the top ten in this tournament. And he's had pretty good recent results, tying for sixth in 2004 and finishing in a tie for third place in 2006.
Couples' 71.97 per-round average at Augusta is lower than Jack Nicklaus', and in fact is lower than anyone in history who has played at least 75 rounds over this course. In this year's field, only Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Ernie Els - three of the established front-runners - have a lower career average among players who have completed at least fifty rounds.
Of course, it would seem that Couples' age plays against him; the oldest winner of the Masters has been Nicklaus, who scored his sixth green jacket in 1986 at age 46. Couples, who is 48 now, chalked up his Masters victory when he was almost exactly at the average age of winners at Augusta - 32 years, six months (official average age is 32.63).
Couples is still hitting long, as his back is giving him less of a problem this year. His average of 300.4 yards per drive currently places him tied for seventh in the PGA Tour's rankings for driving distance. And he is 23rd in total driving. His ranking of 126th in accuracy doesn't compromise him as much at Augusta, because the rough is not as abundantly as other places.
He's being competitive too; though he hasn't won a PGA event in five years, Couples can be sizzling at times. He shot 29 over the back nine last Saturday at the Shell Houston Open and wound up finishing fourth, his best result since his 2006 Masters performance. So one could say he's at least playing well as he moves into Augusta.
Couples may not be a solid play to win, though he may be worth a token play at 50-1 (in the "without" Tiger odds). But perhaps there's more value on him to finish in the top ten, something you can also bet on at BetUS. In this case, Couples is +450 (9-2) to finish in the top ten and even longer (16-1) to place in the top four.
He'll get our money.
But here's another dark horse to win the whole thing:
PADRAIG HARRINGTON.
Of course we mentioned him before. Harrington does a couple of things that are necessary to win at Augusta. He is a long hitter (tied for 19th in driving distance, at 293 yards) and is, as we mentioned, at the top of the list in putts per round. He's got the long game and the short game. And he is priced at 15-1.
Without Tiger Woods, of course.
Sadly, we will likely not be able to cash two bets with Harrington, since no one has ever won both the Par 3 and the Masters in the same year.
But we'll take our chances. That's what it's all about.
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(Charles Jay tees off as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)