Posted on 5/18/2007 8:00:06 PM

Speed ‘Figuring’ Out the Preakness Stakes

By Michael Dempsey

It’s off to Baltimore with our speed figures for the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Compared to the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes is a breeze to figure out the winner. We don’t have to deal with a 20-horse field, or figure out what three-year-old can get 1 ¼ miles.

This race is contested at 1 3/16 miles, over a supposedly speed-friendly strip. Bred in Maryland myself, and a regular at Pimlico for years, I never bought into the surface favoring speed.

Many races were won by horses on or near the lead on a regular basis, but I blamed it on a very passive jockey colony and not the racing strip itself.

 

That seems to be backed up by the fact that, in just two of the past 20 years, the Preakness winner went gate to wire (War Emblem in 2002, and Louis Quatorze in 1996).

The average Beyer Speed Figure for the past ten runnings of the Preakness is 112.9, nearly four points higher than the average for the Derby.

The main reason likely is that most of these three-year-olds are bred more for speed than stamina, and the shorter distance suits their pedigree better; also a smaller field and better chance of an optimal trip.

This race is generally easier to predict as we have an extra race to analyze; we will have seen most of these runners two weeks earlier in the Derby.

Thirteen of the last 15 Preakness winners ran in the Derby. The two exceptions were Bernardini last year and Red Bullet in 2000, and both came into the Preakness with identical Beyers in their final prep (104).

The last ten Preakness winners came into the race with an average last out speed fig of 106.5.

A good place to look for the Preakness winner is a Derby participant that did not “empty the tank” at Churchill Downs.

Many recent Preakness winners actually regressed in speed figure numbers from their final Derby prep to that earned on Derby Day. Over the last ten years, only two Preakness winners earned a higher Derby fig than what they ran in their final Derby prep.

Two that regressed noticeably are Afleet Alex - a 108 in the 2005 Arkansas Derby regressed to a 99 when third in the Kentucky Derby. He had plenty left in the tank for Baltimore and came back with a career top speed fig of 112.

Point Given ran a 110 in his 2001 Santa Anita Derby win, regressed to a 99 in his fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, then bounced back with a career top 111 in the Preakness.

Both of these horses proved they were capable of running fast enough to win the Preakness, excusing a sub-par Derby for a talented runner with proven back figures that fit.

Now getting a price is another thing. “Alex” paid $8.60 and “Given” just $6.60.

In eleven of the past 15 runnings, the winner paid less than $10.

But hey, a $10 winner is better than a loser, right?

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Preakness Stakes odds at Pimlico Racetrack and place your bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2007 Preakness Stakes.