Posted on 3/7/2008 7:26:11 PM

Racebook Feature - Roman Numerals

By Brian Mulligan

For years, Dr. Steven Roman’s Dosage Index was a corner stone for trying to uncover the winner of the Kentucky Derby but in recent years, part because the equine breed has intrinsically changed; his figures have been dismissed more as voodoo than any practical application.

Roman is no dummy. He has a Masters Degree from an Ivy League school and has over 50 U.S. patents.

One thing horse bettors had better know right now is that all information is good. Whether it is negative information, a horse not doing well back at the barn, or positive information, like the fact maybe the clockers missed a blazing work from a young horse.

Since the sophomores trying to attain glory in the first Saturday in May in the Derby will be trying to do something they have never done before, go a mile and a quarter successfully, then stamina influences of the pedigree logically are imperative.

This is where the DI comes into play. The Dosage Index is a technique for classifying pedigrees according to aptitudinal type, with stamina influences prominent in runners that have a given right to get the classic distance.

Because Roman and the Dosage Index have changed and their staple theory has failed some horse bettors have stayed away but it did have great success and may still be favored by bettors in this game if certain sires were projected as top sires earlier.

Horse bettors should know that until 1991 no horse with a higher Dosage Index of 4.00 had won the Kentucky Derby. Strike the Gold won the Derby in 1991 and blew the DI out of the water. Seven years later Real Quiet also won the Derby with a higher DI than 4.00 and people were falling off the Roman bandwagon faster than New England Patriot fans.

But there is nothing wrong with hard-working horse bettors really knowing what Dosage is and here’s an explanation.

It is a math analysis of the pedigree based upon location of certain sires in the family.

Roman has designated masters of the breed, Chefs-de-Race, and they are put into categories named Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional.

Speed influences are Brilliant, stamina forces Professional.

The Dosage Profile is attained by the numbers of points in each category. So theoretically, a runner with higher numbers in the Brilliant and Intermediate classes and low numbers in the Professional will be speed oriented and with higher numbers in the Solid and Professional and low numbers in the Brilliant and Intermediate would indicate stamina in the pedigree.

Horse bettors will hear people down playing this theory as the Triple Crown Trail progresses, they’ll say it is a bunch of baloney and maybe it is, but just like everything in life, you have to have an open mind and Roman has some interesting theories about synthetic tracks that cagey horse bettors would be wise to listen to since the next two Breeders’ Cup are schedule for the synthetic confines of Santa Anita.

Roman when asked in a Thoroughbred Times interview about including artificial racing surfaces in regards to dosage formulas. Roman: “Absolutely, but it will be a while before there is enough data…. initial studies have shown that the general Dosage model holds up equally well on both surfaces. Preliminary data indicate that at the same distance, the figures on synthetic surfaces are marginally higher than they are on dirt, although it is far too early to draw a definitive conclusion. If that pattern continues, it will suggest that speed in a pedigree can carry further on the synthetic surface.”

That could be a nice caveat that horse bettors can look forward to if a speed runner tries to carry his zip a route of ground in the BC Classic in Arcadia.

The best horse bettors know this game is about hard work and information, and the more info the better. Dosage and the Roman concept should at the very least be understood before it is thrown out the window.

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