Posted on
5/18/2007 8:01:00 PM
Preakness Stakes Betting - Finding The Preakness Winner
By Geir Stabell
Isn’t it wonderful? When we get to the Preakness Stakes, we already know which is the best three-year-old colt around.
Presumably, it is the winner of the Kentucky Derby. Also, if we want to play with stats, we can focus on just seven runnings – and it gives us the whole picture of this century. Well, don’t take this too seriously. There are other keys to solving the second leg of the Triple Crown that may get you better results.
One is quite simple: follow the money. Whereas Fusaichi Pegasus is the only favorite to win at Churchill Downs over the past ten years, no fewer than five favorites have obliged at Pimlico over the same period. Barbaro could well have been a sixth.
Overall, favorites in thoroughbred horseraces typically have a 30% strike rate. Although Grade 1 races have a higher percentage of winners, it seems that, even though it is not ‘always’ the Derby winner that comes out best in the Preakness, the betting is an incredibly good pointer in the Preakness.
The five winners have actually come within the last six runnings, from Point Given in 2001, to Afleet Alex two years ago – with the five-win streak assisted by War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones. There are many factors that affect this picture – that favorites do better in the Preakness than in the Derby. Firstly, the Derby reveals who’s top class and who’s not. Secondly, it nearly always has a much bigger field. There are two other factors though, that I believe to be equally important.
On Derby Day, the pools are heavily influenced by millions of ‘amateur bettors’. Much more so than on Preakness Day. These folks, who tune in to racing once a year, and have a $2 win bet – or even share one with a friend – do not bet the experts’ favorites. And why should they? Together, these once-a-year fans combine for a massive slice of the win pool.
The other factor which makes the Preakness easier to predict than the Derby is the distance. It may be only half a furlong shorter than the Derby, but that – and the fact that Pimlico is not quite as testing and that the pace is normally more sensible – makes a big, big difference. It means that a horse can win it without having abundance of stamina. The race more resembles all the 8.5 and 9-furlong preps we have studies on through the winter and early spring.
The Derby preps can be more likely to tell us who’s in with a shot at the Preakness than the Derby. Therefore, when planning your Preakness bets, do not forget those ‘Derby’ preps. And bear in mind that the majority of the money bet on the favorite on the board at Pimlico has been backed for a good, professional reason. That is seldom the case in the Derby.
If you had bet $100 on the last ten favorites in the Derby, you would have suffered a loss of $770. If you had $100 bet on the last ten favorites in the Preakness, you would have profit of $470.
The betting can get it totally wrong in the second leg of the Triple Crown as well, of course. This was the case in 1999, when the D. Wayne Lukas Derby shocker Charismatic was over 8-1 at Pimlico, where he beat Menifee, just as he had at done at Churchill. Menifee was the 2-1 favorite, and in third came Badge, at a whopping 58-1. Such big-priced horses do not hit the board as often here as they do in the Derby, but it can happen.
Last year is one to exclude from our stats, after the sad injury to Barbaro. If you take that race out, your total payouts on those $100 bets would actually be $1470 from $900 – making a 63% profit!
It seems that when the majority of the win money is bet on the Derby winner in the Preakness, he wins, and when the money goes against him, he loses. Smarty Jones, Funny Cide and War Emblem were all favorites when adding the Preakness to their even more prestigious Derby win.
One final thought: it may be a coincidence, but the betting public appears to have improved their understanding of the Preakness over the past ten years. Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998) and the aforementioned Charismatic (1999) were all opposed in the Preakness betting, and thus not favorites, despite all three having won the Derby.
They all won at Pimlico. And now, over the past five runnings, three Derby winners have been made the favorite in the Preakness. They all won.
Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Preakness Stakes odds at Pimlico Racetrack place your bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2007 Preakness Stakes.