Posted on 5/2/2008 1:59:41 PM

Political Betting Props – A Veep For McCain

By Charles Jay

BetUS Sportsbook online betting customers who like to bet on political goings-on might be interested to know that in a recent Gallup survey, 11% of people who identified themselves as Republicans said that they would vote for the Democratic or third-party candidate if John McCain does not choose a vice-presidential running mate who is more conservative than he is. Nine percent more said that they would just sit the election out.

This leaves McCain with an interesting dilemma, because at the same time, he has to pick someone who is not too offensive to independents, undecideds and potential crossover votes, since, with all the infighting on the Democratic side, there will be a lot of votes up for grabs.

McCain also has to achieve a certain balance on other fronts, based on the way he has framed his own candidacy.

Before we go any further, let's take a look at the BetUS political odds:

Next Republican Vice-Presidential Candidate

Tim Pawlenty +500

Mike Huckabee +1400

Chuck Hagel +5000

Joe Lieberman +1200

Condoleeza Rice +1200

Mitt Romney +250

Rudolph Giuliani +2500

Charlie Crist +650

Fred Thompson +5000

Kay Bailey Hutchison +1800

Michael Bloomberg +10000

Ron Paul +25000

Chris Cox +650

Lindsay Graham +550

Mark Sanford +1000

Sarah Palin +1200

Rob Portman +1000

John Kasich +1500

Haley Barbour +2000

David Petreaus +3000

The way I'm looking at this, any viable possibility as a McCain running mate should be:

1) MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN HIM -- My assumption is that, for the most part, this means "conservative" from the moral perspective, since it is the Religious Right-types who are looking to be placated.

2) NOT A SEVERE CRITIC OF THE WAR, BUT NOT AN EXTREME "HAWK" EITHER -- This is one of the places where McCain, who backs the Iraq War, has to get balance, so as not to completely alienate those who feel opposition toward it.

3) NOT A POLARIZING FIGURE -- You don't want someone who is going to scare voters away - for any reason.

4) NOT A REMINDER OF THE BUSH REGIME -- McCain does enough of that already. Here again, he needs balance. McCain's acquiescence to the Bush policies is one of the things the Democrats will continue to hammer on in the general election.

5) PREFERABLY HELPFUL WITH THE "ELECTORAL MATH" -- And certainly not hurtful. Anyone who can help deliver a state is going to be of premium value.

It also helps if the candidate is....

-- PHOTOGENIC AND/OR CHARISMATIC

-- A PROVEN VOTE-GETTER ON A NATIONAL SCALE

-- NOT A SENATOR (Americans like a little balance in this regard too)

-- SOMEONE WITH NAME RECOGNITION

-- POSSIBLY, A MINORITY OR EVEN A WOMAN

Let's look at how the people in the BetUS political odds field stack up along the lines of that criteria:

1) MORE CONSERVATIVE -- Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, Kay Bailey Hutchison, John Kasich and Haley Barbour fit the bill here. Rob Portman, a former congressman, gets high marks here. Tim Pawlenty, governor of Minnesota, may fit in as well. Mark Sanford, governor of South Carolina, is known to be both morally and fiscally conservative, which is rare. Sarah Palin, governor of Alaska, is something of a "softer" conservative. Using this criteria, Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg (if they ever were possibilities) are eliminated. And Lindsay Graham is hurt by this, since he lines up with McCain on immigration reform.

2) WAR ISSUE -- This is where Ron Paul and Chuck Hagel are eliminated, since they have severely criticized what is going on in Iraq. Joe Lieberman and Lindsay Graham are probably too hawkish. Mike Huckabee is also a supporter of the War and the current surge. Thompson is not as much of a hard-liner on the war.

3) NOT POLARIZING -- Giuliani has the potential to be very polarizing, as does Mitt Romney. Plus, McCain doesn't like him. Graham loses points here, since Hillary Clinton supporters who otherwise might vote for him would back off because of the way he made a name for himself during the Bill Clinton impeachment proceedings.

4) NO REMINDER OF BUSH -- This would hurt people like Condoleeza Rice, General David Petraeus, and perhaps Bush appointees like Rob Portman (Director of OMB) and Chris Cox (chairman of SEC).

5) ELECTORAL MATH -- Well, Giuliani might have been a help in New York, but we've already eliminated him. Kasich and Portman would be of use in Ohio, a battleground state. Charlie Crist, a popular governor in Florida, could be a key. Joe Lieberman would be helpful with the Jewish vote in the Sunshine State. Chris Cox probably doesn't have enough pull in California. Pawlenty may not be able to deliver Minnesota. Romney wouldn't deliver Massachusetts. Huckabee is strong in the South, but the GOP will win that anyway. The same can be said for Sanford, Hutchison and Barbour in their respective states (South Carolina, Texas and Mississippi).

And the others...

-- PHOTOGENIC/CHARISMATIC -- Highest marks in this category are, hands down, property of Sarah Palin, Alaska's 42 year-old governor and former beauty pageant winner whose approval ratings are consistently in the 80-percent range. Huckabee, Rice, Romney and Sanford may also rank high here. Cox, Lieberman and Barbour are losers here. the others are kind of neutral.

-- VOTE-GETTER -- Well, Huckabee did pretty well in the primary process. And Lieberman has run a national campaign, though it must be noted that the Democrat would have to go complete turncoat to become McCain's running mate.

-- NOT A SENATOR -- That would leave out Hagel, Lieberman, Hutchison, Graham, and perhaps Thompson, an ex-Senator.

-- NAME RECOGNITION -- Huckabee and Romney got quite a bit of it in the primaries. Also put Thompson (the actor), Giuliani, Rice, Bloomberg, Petraeus and maybe Kasich, who has hosted a national TV show on Fox. Barbour, the former chairman of the Republican National Committee, got a lot of attention dealing with Hurricane Katrina. Those who suffer using this criteria would be Pawlenty, Cox, Crist, Sanford, Palin and Portman.

-- MINORITY/WOMEN -- Well, Condi Rice hits it on both counts, doesn't she?

Nobody comes up roses in every category, but after reviewing the criteria, I can cross off a number of names as non-starters -- Hagel, Rice, Giuliani, Bloomberg, Paul, Petraeus. Also, Fred Thompson, who is going back to the big and small screen. And my apologies to Ms. Palin, but it's not going to happen - not this year, anyway.

That leaves us with 12 possibilities. Here is the way I would rank them, in order, according to the BetUS political betting odds:

Huckabee +1400

Crist +650

Pawlenty +500

Sanford +1000

Kasich +1500

Graham +550

Hutchison +1800

Lieberman +1200

Barbour +2000

Portman +1000

Romney +250

Cox +650

Now go get your voter's registration card.

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(Charles Jay was the 2004 presidential candidate of the Personal Choice Party, and is also the 2008 nominee. He says he will place odds on himself at the appropriate time. He is currently a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)